KC · Bye 5
Travis Kelce
LMD TE5 for Week 4 · 11.7 projected Full PPR points · TE6 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 11.7 points this week, TE5. Top 3: 13% · Top 12: 44% · Top 24: 66% of simulated weeks. Down 1 since Week 3.
Week 4
TE5
80th by projected points
Rest of season
TE6
51st by projected points
Projected
11.7
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
44%
Top 3: 13% · Top 24: 66% at TE
Movement
↓ 1
TE4 in Week 3, TE5 now
Should you start Travis Kelce in Week 4?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Travis Kelce TE5 for Week 4, inside the TE12 starter line. He finishes inside TE12 in 44% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.01 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.30 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.02 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.32 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Travis Kelce credits fresh fade for ‘powers’ after Chiefs beat Dolphins
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Travis Kelce Is Close to Making NFL History
complex.com ·
-
Travis Kelce Makes Strong Chiefs Demand Amid NFL Season
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Travis Kelce makes bold style statement after Chiefs victory
Yahoo Sports ·
-
“It puts a halt to the momentum”: Travis Kelce opens up on NFL’s penalty problem as Patrick Mahomes’ controversial hit sparks debate ahead of Week 4 clash
timesofindia.indiatimes.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Travis Kelce by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Travis Kelce has averaged +7.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DEN | 7.5 | 10.1 | +2.6 |
| Wk 2 | vs IND | 7.7 | 25.1 | +17.4 |
| Wk 3 | @ MIA | 12.6 | 13.9 | +1.3 |
| Wk 4 | @ LV | 11.7 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE10. For the rest of the season LMD has him 4 spots higher, at TE6.
Preseason market: TE10 · ADP 108.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE6 +4
LMD has him 4 spots higher than his TE10 draft price.
Week 4
TE5 +5
LMD has him 5 spots higher than his TE10 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE10 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 164.1 points this season, TE6. Top 3: 16% · Top 12: 79% · Top 24: 99% of simulated seasons. That is 11.8 a game over 14 remaining games.
Per game
11.8 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 16% · Top 12: 79% · Top 24: 99%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Travis Kelce #141 in 1QB and #137 in Superflex, TE14 at his position. Age 36.
1QB
#141
TE14 · tier 31 · of 297
Superflex
#137
TE14 · tier 24 · of 303
- Last season 155.2 pts 9.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 96% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 21% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
9.08
pick 103.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
9.06
half of simulations take him by pick 102
Draft range
8.02 - 11.04
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,996 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 9.06 in 51% of simulations
Pick 102 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 10.07, where he is available in 22% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 9.06 51% · 10.07 22% · 11.06 9% · 12.07 2% · 13.06 <1% · 14.07 <1% · 15.06 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 8.09 and 10.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.04 | 56% |
| 9.05 | 54% |
| 9.06 | 51% |
| 9.07 | 49% |
| 9.08 | 46% |
| 9.09 | 43% |
| 9.10 | 41% |
| 9.11 | 38% |
| 9.12 | 36% |
| 10.01 | 33% |
| 10.02 | 31% |
| 10.03 | 29% |
| 10.04 | 27% |
| 10.05 | 25% |
| 10.06 | 24% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.02-8.03 | 4% | 406 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 4% | 365 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 5% | 454 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 5% | 530 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 5% | 531 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 5% | 531 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 6% | 551 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 531 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 5% | 541 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 4% | 443 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 4% | 405 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 4% | 352 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 3% | 320 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 3% | 323 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 3% | 250 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 2% | 225 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 2% | 188 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04 | <1% | 96 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9996 simulations in which Travis Kelce was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Brian Robinson RB · ATL 2%
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
- George Kittle TE · SF 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 3%
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 3%
- Oronde Gadsden II TE · LAC 2%
- George Kittle TE · SF 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Travis Kelce was selected in 9996 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.