WAS · Bye 7
Chig Okonkwo
LMD TE25 for Week 4 · 7.2 projected Full PPR points · TE27 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.2 points this week, TE25. Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 19% · Top 24: 36% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Up 4 since Week 3.
Week 4
TE25
151st by projected points
Rest of season
TE27
132nd by projected points
Projected
7.2
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
19%
Top 3: 5% · Top 24: 36% at TE
Movement
↑ 4
TE29 in Week 3, TE25 now
Should you start Chig Okonkwo in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Chig Okonkwo TE25 for Week 4, outside the TE12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside TE12 in 19% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
TE25 vs TE32 +7
LMD has him TE25. The fantasy draft market has him TE32, 7 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.26 pts
- Recent usage & efficiencyLimited data
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.06 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.13 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight positive+0.46 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
STATUS
Chig Okonkwo was listed as Questionable.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Chig Okonkwo's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 164.3 to 171.1 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Chig Okonkwo has averaged -0.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ PHI | 4.4 | 3.6 | -0.8 |
| Wk 2 | @ DAL | 3.7 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | vs SEA | 5.6 | Pending | — |
| Wk 4 | vs IND | 7.2 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 100.0 points this season, TE27. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 5% · Top 24: 41% of simulated seasons. That is 7.0 a game over 14 remaining games. Listed questionable. Up 23 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
7.0 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 5% · Top 24: 41%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Chig Okonkwo #186 in 1QB and #186 in Superflex, TE24 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#186
TE24 · tier 42 · of 297
Superflex
#186
TE24 · tier 35 · of 303
- Last season 96.0 pts 5.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 98% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 15% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.12
pick 156.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.02
half of simulations take him by pick 158
Draft range
12.04 - 15.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 4,905 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.02 in 76% of simulations
Pick 158 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 15.11, where he is available in 54% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 14.02 76% · 15.11 54%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.08 and 15.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 13.12 | 77% |
| 14.01 | 76% |
| 14.02 | 76% |
| 14.03 | 75% |
| 14.04 | 75% |
| 14.05 | 74% |
| 14.06 | 73% |
| 14.07 | 73% |
| 14.08 | 72% |
| 14.09 | 71% |
| 14.10 | 71% |
| 14.11 | 70% |
| 14.12 | 69% |
| 15.01 | 68% |
| 15.02 | 67% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.04-12.05 | 3% | 324 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.07 | 4% | 384 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.09 | 4% | 375 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.11 | 4% | 370 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 2% | 204 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | <1% | 34 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | <1% | 53 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | <1% | 36 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | <1% | 48 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | <1% | 55 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | <1% | 77 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | 1% | 129 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | 1% | 106 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 1% | 135 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 2% | 154 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 1% | 142 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 2% | 218 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 3% | 272 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 3% | 295 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06-15.07 | 3% | 294 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08-15.09 | 3% | 308 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 4905 simulations in which Chig Okonkwo was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Alvin Kamara RB · NO 2%
- Jake Bates K · DET 2%
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 2%
- Chris Boswell K · PIT 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 3%
- Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 2%
- Andy Borregales K · NE 2%
- David Njoku TE · LAC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Chig Okonkwo was selected in 4905 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.