NYG · Bye 8
Isaiah Likely
LMD TE10 for Week 4 · 10.5 projected Full PPR points · TE10 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 10.5 points this week, TE10. Top 3: 11% · Top 12: 37% · Top 24: 60% of simulated weeks. Down 3 since Week 3.
Week 4
TE10
94th by projected points
Rest of season
TE10
66th by projected points
Projected
10.5
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
37%
Top 3: 11% · Top 24: 60% at TE
Movement
↓ 3
TE7 in Week 3, TE10 now
Should you start Isaiah Likely in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Isaiah Likely TE10 for Week 4, inside the TE12 starter line. He finishes inside TE12 in 37% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.42 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.10 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.26 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.32 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Did Isaiah Likely really troll J.J. McCarthy over No. 9 Giants jersey?
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Isaiah Likely limited to two receptions
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Jaxson Dart and Isaiah Likely show off their chemistry in Giants' Week 1 win
houstonchronicle.com ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Isaiah Likely's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 133.7 to 156.2 over the last 7 days.
-
Updated Isaiah Likely Fantasy Outlook 2026: Should You Draft in Fantasy Football?
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Isaiah Likely by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Isaiah Likely has averaged +4.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DAL | 7.3 | 27.8 | +20.5 |
| Wk 2 | @ LAR | 8.4 | 8.3 | -0.1 |
| Wk 3 | vs TEN | 11.8 | 3.3 | -8.5 |
| Wk 4 | vs ARI | 10.5 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE13. For the rest of the season LMD has him 3 spots higher, at TE10.
Preseason market: TE13 · ADP 136.6
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE10 +3
LMD has him 3 spots higher than his TE13 draft price.
Week 4
TE10 +3
LMD has him 3 spots higher than his TE13 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE13 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 145.2 points this season, TE10. Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 56% · Top 24: 95% of simulated seasons. That is 10.9 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 1 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
10.9 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 56% · Top 24: 95%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Isaiah Likely #265 in 1QB and #272 in Superflex, TE45 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#265
TE45 · tier 62 · of 297
Superflex
#272
TE45 · tier 56 · of 303
- Last season 48.2 pts 4.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 78% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 3.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 12% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
11.07
pick 127.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.03
half of simulations take him by pick 123
Draft range
9.12 - 13.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,600 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.03 in 54% of simulations
Pick 123 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 3, the same seat picks again at 12.10, where he is available in 19% of simulations.
Slot 3's remaining turns: 11.03 54% · 12.10 19% · 13.03 15% · 14.10 11% · 15.03 8%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.06 and 12.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.01 | 58% |
| 11.02 | 56% |
| 11.03 | 54% |
| 11.04 | 52% |
| 11.05 | 49% |
| 11.06 | 47% |
| 11.07 | 45% |
| 11.08 | 43% |
| 11.09 | 41% |
| 11.10 | 39% |
| 11.11 | 37% |
| 11.12 | 35% |
| 12.01 | 33% |
| 12.02 | 32% |
| 12.03 | 30% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.12-10.01 | 5% | 540 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 5% | 520 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 5% | 464 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 5% | 530 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 5% | 530 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 5% | 489 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 5% | 491 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 4% | 441 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 5% | 453 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 4% | 396 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 4% | 379 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 4% | 418 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.01 | 4% | 363 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.03 | 3% | 319 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.05 | 3% | 334 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.07 | 3% | 293 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.09 | 3% | 300 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.11 | 2% | 245 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 1% | 137 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | <1% | 30 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | <1% | 35 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | <1% | 34 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | <1% | 28 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | <1% | 45 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9600 simulations in which Isaiah Likely was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Josh Downs WR · IND 2%
- Kenyon Sadiq TE · NYJ 2%
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 2%
- Brenton Strange TE · JAX 2%
Usually taken just after
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 2%
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 2%
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 2%
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · WAS 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Isaiah Likely was selected in 9600 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.