BUF · Bye 7
Dalton Kincaid
LMD TE7 for Week 4 · 11.3 projected Full PPR points · TE7 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 11.3 points this week, TE7. Top 3: 12% · Top 12: 41% · Top 24: 65% of simulated weeks. Down 2 since Week 3.
Week 4
TE7
86th by projected points
Rest of season
TE7
58th by projected points
Projected
11.3
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
41%
Top 3: 12% · Top 24: 65% at TE
Movement
↓ 2
TE5 in Week 3, TE7 now
Should you start Dalton Kincaid in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Dalton Kincaid TE7 for Week 4, inside the TE12 starter line. He finishes inside TE12 in 41% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.09 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.35 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.14 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.36 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Dalton Kincaid isn’t transforming into a receiver, Joe Brady is using him like a genuine tight end
Yahoo Sports ·
-
A healthy Dalton Kincaid is having a blast being used as a premier weapon by the Bills
lockportjournal.com ·
-
Dalton Kincaid shines in season opener
Yahoo Sports ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Dalton Kincaid's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 143.8 to 151.4 over the last 7 days.
-
Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid makes a reception during the second quarter against the Houston Texans.
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Dalton Kincaid by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Dalton Kincaid has averaged +6.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ HOU | 6.6 | 18.0 | +11.4 |
| Wk 2 | vs DET | 7.6 | 22.5 | +14.9 |
| Wk 3 | vs LAC | 12.2 | 3.8 | -8.4 |
| Wk 4 | vs NE | 11.3 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE15. For the rest of the season LMD has him 8 spots higher, at TE7.
Preseason market: TE15 · ADP 147.3
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE7 +8
LMD has him 8 spots higher than his TE15 draft price.
Week 4
TE7 +8
LMD has him 8 spots higher than his TE15 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE15 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 159.0 points this season, TE7. Top 3: 13% · Top 12: 73% · Top 24: 98% of simulated seasons. That is 11.3 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 2 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
11.3 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 13% · Top 12: 73% · Top 24: 98%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Dalton Kincaid #146 in 1QB and #143 in Superflex, TE15 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#146
TE15 · tier 32 · of 297
Superflex
#143
TE15 · tier 26 · of 303
- Last season 106.6 pts 8.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 77% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 17% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.05
pick 112.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.04
half of simulations take him by pick 112
Draft range
8.06 - 12.04
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,981 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.04 in 51% of simulations
Pick 112 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 9, the same seat picks again at 11.09, where he is available in 19% of simulations.
Slot 9's remaining turns: 10.04 51% · 11.09 19% · 12.04 11% · 13.09 3% · 14.04 2% · 15.09 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.03 and 11.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.02 | 55% |
| 10.03 | 53% |
| 10.04 | 51% |
| 10.05 | 49% |
| 10.06 | 47% |
| 10.07 | 45% |
| 10.08 | 43% |
| 10.09 | 41% |
| 10.10 | 39% |
| 10.11 | 37% |
| 10.12 | 35% |
| 11.01 | 32% |
| 11.02 | 30% |
| 11.03 | 29% |
| 11.04 | 27% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.06-8.07 | 3% | 256 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 3% | 271 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 3% | 338 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 3% | 323 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 3% | 324 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 4% | 360 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 4% | 388 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 4% | 377 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 4% | 418 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 4% | 414 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 4% | 402 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 4% | 431 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 4% | 402 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 4% | 436 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 4% | 398 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 4% | 419 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 3% | 346 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 3% | 296 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 3% | 315 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 3% | 311 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 3% | 270 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.01 | 2% | 225 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.03 | 2% | 219 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04 | 1% | 103 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9981 simulations in which Dalton Kincaid was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 2%
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 2%
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 2%
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 2%
Usually taken just after
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 2%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Dalton Kincaid was selected in 9981 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.