JAX · Bye 7
Brenton Strange
LMD TE20 for Week 4 · 8.1 projected Full PPR points · TE22 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.1 points this week, TE20. Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 24% · Top 24: 45% of simulated weeks. Up 8 since Week 3.
Week 4
TE20
132nd by projected points
Rest of season
TE22
113th by projected points
Projected
8.1
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
24%
Top 3: 5% · Top 24: 45% at TE
Movement
↑ 8
TE28 in Week 3, TE20 now
Should you start Brenton Strange in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Brenton Strange TE20 for Week 4, outside the TE12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside TE12 in 24% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
TE20 vs TE26 +6
LMD has him TE20. The fantasy draft market has him TE26, 6 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.24 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.26 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.01 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+0.61 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Brenton Strange has averaged +1.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs CLE | 5.9 | 10.3 | +4.4 |
| Wk 2 | @ DEN | 5.7 | 3.7 | -2.0 |
| Wk 3 | vs NE | 5.7 | 6.2 | +0.5 |
| Wk 4 | @ CIN | 8.1 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 112.3 points this season, TE22. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 64% of simulated seasons. That is 8.1 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 1 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
8.1 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 64%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Brenton Strange #220 in 1QB and #221 in Superflex, TE32 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#220
TE32 · tier 48 · of 297
Superflex
#221
TE32 · tier 40 · of 303
- Last season 95.0 pts 7.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 68% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 3.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 12% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
11.01
pick 121.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.10
half of simulations take him by pick 118
Draft range
9.05 - 12.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,814 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.10 in 52% of simulations
Pick 118 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 3, the same seat picks again at 11.03, where he is available in 41% of simulations.
Slot 3's remaining turns: 10.10 52% · 11.03 41% · 12.10 13% · 13.03 9% · 14.10 6% · 15.03 5%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.11 and 11.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.08 | 57% |
| 10.09 | 54% |
| 10.10 | 52% |
| 10.11 | 49% |
| 10.12 | 47% |
| 11.01 | 45% |
| 11.02 | 43% |
| 11.03 | 41% |
| 11.04 | 39% |
| 11.05 | 37% |
| 11.06 | 36% |
| 11.07 | 34% |
| 11.08 | 32% |
| 11.09 | 31% |
| 11.10 | 29% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.05-9.06 | 5% | 473 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 5% | 471 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 5% | 494 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 5% | 466 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 4% | 442 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 5% | 470 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 5% | 478 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 5% | 475 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 5% | 499 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 4% | 436 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 4% | 383 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.04 | 4% | 382 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.06 | 4% | 354 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.08 | 3% | 317 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.10 | 3% | 318 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-11.12 | 3% | 290 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.02 | 3% | 256 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.04 | 3% | 281 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.06 | 3% | 252 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.08 | 3% | 267 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.10 | 3% | 259 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9814 simulations in which Brenton Strange was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 2%
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 2%
- Kenyon Sadiq TE · NYJ 2%
- Jordan Addison WR · MIN 2%
Usually taken just after
- Kenyon Sadiq TE · NYJ 2%
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 2%
- Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF 2%
- Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Brenton Strange was selected in 9814 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.