TB · Bye 10
Cade Otton
LMD TE23 for Week 4 · 7.6 projected Full PPR points · TE24 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.6 points this week, TE23. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 21% · Top 24: 41% of simulated weeks. Up 1 since Week 3.
Week 4
TE23
145th by projected points
Rest of season
TE24
121st by projected points
Projected
7.6
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
21%
Top 3: 4% · Top 24: 41% at TE
Movement
↑ 1
TE24 in Week 3, TE23 now
Should you start Cade Otton in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Cade Otton TE23 for Week 4, outside the TE12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside TE12 in 21% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-0.95 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.90 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.05 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-0.74 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Cade Otton has averaged +2.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ CIN | 3.9 | 5.6 | +1.7 |
| Wk 2 | vs CLE | 5.0 | 8.8 | +3.8 |
| Wk 3 | vs MIN | 7.1 | 8.6 | +1.5 |
| Wk 4 | vs GB | 7.6 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 107.4 points this season, TE24. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 7% · Top 24: 56% of simulated seasons. That is 7.6 a game over 14 remaining games. Up 3 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
7.6 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 7% · Top 24: 56%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Cade Otton #187 in 1QB and #188 in Superflex, TE25 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#187
TE25 · tier 42 · of 297
Superflex
#188
TE25 · tier 35 · of 303
- Last season 92.7 pts 6.2 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 89% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 17% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.11
pick 167.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.03
half of simulations take him by pick 171
Draft range
13.04 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 2,980 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.03 in 85% of simulations
Pick 171 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.05 and 15.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.01 | 88% |
| 15.02 | 87% |
| 15.03 | 85% |
| 15.04 | 84% |
| 15.05 | 83% |
| 15.06 | 81% |
| 15.07 | 80% |
| 15.08 | 78% |
| 15.09 | 77% |
| 15.10 | 75% |
| 15.11 | 73% |
| 15.12 | 72% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 13.04-13.05 | <1% | 53 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | <1% | 53 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | <1% | 49 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | <1% | 47 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | <1% | 89 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | 1% | 101 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | 1% | 108 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 1% | 118 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 1% | 106 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 1% | 122 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 2% | 193 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 3% | 284 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 3% | 267 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06-15.07 | 3% | 313 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08-15.09 | 3% | 321 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10-15.11 | 3% | 319 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 2980 simulations in which Cade Otton was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Chris Boswell K · PIT 3%
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 3%
- Andy Borregales K · NE 2%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 5%
- Chris Boswell K · PIT 2%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 2%
- Andy Borregales K · NE 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Cade Otton was selected in 2980 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.