MIN · Bye 6
T.J. Hockenson
LMD TE13 for Week 4 · 9.5 projected Full PPR points · TE15 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 9.5 points this week, TE13. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 32% · Top 24: 53% of simulated weeks. Up 2 since Week 3.
Week 4
TE13
109th by projected points
Rest of season
TE15
84th by projected points
Projected
9.5
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
32%
Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 53% at TE
Movement
↑ 2
TE15 in Week 3, TE13 now
Should you start T.J. Hockenson in Week 4?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks T.J. Hockenson TE13 for Week 4, just outside the TE12 starter line. He finishes inside TE12 in 32% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
TE13 vs TE20 +7
LMD has him TE13. The fantasy draft market has him TE20, 7 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.08 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.08 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.08 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+1.11 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
ADP UPDATE
T.J. Hockenson's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 170.4 to 139.2 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games T.J. Hockenson has averaged +0.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs GB | 6.1 | 13.6 | +7.5 |
| Wk 2 | @ CHI | 7.1 | 5.9 | -1.2 |
| Wk 3 | @ TB | 8.8 | 3.1 | -5.7 |
| Wk 4 | vs MIA | 9.5 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE18. For the rest of the season LMD has him 3 spots higher, at TE15.
Preseason market: TE18 · ADP 162.0
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE15 +3
LMD has him 3 spots higher than his TE18 draft price.
Week 4
TE13 +5
LMD has him 5 spots higher than his TE18 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE18 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 132.0 points this season, TE15. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 36% · Top 24: 89% of simulated seasons. That is 9.5 a game over 14 remaining games. Up 4 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
9.5 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 36% · Top 24: 89%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has T.J. Hockenson #227 in 1QB and #230 in Superflex, TE33 at his position. Age 29.
1QB
#227
TE33 · tier 50 · of 297
Superflex
#230
TE33 · tier 43 · of 303
- Last season 87.3 pts 5.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 79% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 18% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.03
pick 146.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.09
half of simulations take him by pick 141
Draft range
11.06 - 15.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 7,129 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.09 in 65% of simulations
Pick 141 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 4, the same seat picks again at 13.04, where he is available in 54% of simulations.
Slot 4's remaining turns: 12.09 65% · 13.04 54% · 14.09 48% · 15.04 41%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.12 and 14.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.07 | 69% |
| 12.08 | 67% |
| 12.09 | 65% |
| 12.10 | 63% |
| 12.11 | 60% |
| 12.12 | 58% |
| 13.01 | 55% |
| 13.02 | 55% |
| 13.03 | 55% |
| 13.04 | 54% |
| 13.05 | 54% |
| 13.06 | 54% |
| 13.07 | 54% |
| 13.08 | 53% |
| 13.09 | 53% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 11.06-11.08 | 5% | 546 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.11 | 6% | 550 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.02 | 5% | 544 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.05 | 6% | 609 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.08 | 7% | 691 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.11 | 7% | 708 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.02 | 3% | 317 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.05 | <1% | 84 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.08 | <1% | 72 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.11 | <1% | 80 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.02 | 1% | 124 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.05 | 1% | 146 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.08 | 2% | 182 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.11 | 2% | 222 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.02 | 3% | 342 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03-15.05 | 4% | 415 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06-15.07 | 3% | 272 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 7129 simulations in which T.J. Hockenson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 2%
- Jayden Higgins WR · HOU 2%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 2%
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 3%
- Jayden Higgins WR · HOU 2%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 2%
- Baker Mayfield QB · TB 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
T.J. Hockenson was selected in 7129 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.