DET · Bye 6
Sam LaPorta
LMD TE8 for Week 4 · 11.2 projected Full PPR points · TE8 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 11.2 points this week, TE8. Top 3: 12% · Top 12: 41% · Top 24: 65% of simulated weeks. Down 2 since Week 3.
Week 4
TE8
87th by projected points
Rest of season
TE8
60th by projected points
Projected
11.2
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
41%
Top 3: 12% · Top 24: 65% at TE
Movement
↓ 2
TE6 in Week 3, TE8 now
Should you start Sam LaPorta in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Sam LaPorta TE8 for Week 4, inside the TE12 starter line. He finishes inside TE12 in 41% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.07 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.08 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.01 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.09 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Michigan Wolverines linebacker Josh Ross against Iowa Hawkeyes tight end Sam LaPorta in the Big Ten Conference championship game
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Buffalo struggles to cover Sam LaPorta on Thursday night
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta is an interesting anytime TD bet in Week 2.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
STATUS
Sam LaPorta is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Sam LaPorta's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 109.7 to 88.7 over the last 7 days.
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Sam LaPorta by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Sam LaPorta has averaged +1.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NO | 8.3 | 9.8 | +1.5 |
| Wk 2 | @ BUF | 10.5 | 17.2 | +6.7 |
| Wk 3 | vs NYJ | 12.3 | 7.4 | -4.9 |
| Wk 4 | @ CAR | 11.2 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE8, and for the rest of the season LMD still has him there.
Preseason market: TE8 · ADP 100.4
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE8 Even
Level with his TE8 draft price.
Week 4
TE8 Even
Level with his TE8 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE8 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 154.6 points this season, TE8. Top 3: 10% · Top 12: 69% · Top 24: 98% of simulated seasons. That is 11.0 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 1 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
11.0 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 10% · Top 12: 69% · Top 24: 98%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Sam LaPorta #122 in 1QB and #122 in Superflex, TE10 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#122
TE10 · tier 27 · of 297
Superflex
#122
TE10 · tier 21 · of 303
- Last season 86.9 pts 9.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 75% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.7 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 19% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
6.05
pick 64.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
6.05
half of simulations take him by pick 65
Draft range
4.12 - 7.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 6.05 in 52% of simulations
Pick 65 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 7.08, where he is available in 10% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 6.05 52% · 7.08 10% · 8.05 1% · 9.08 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 5.08 and 7.01.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 6.03 | 58% |
| 6.04 | 55% |
| 6.05 | 52% |
| 6.06 | 49% |
| 6.07 | 46% |
| 6.08 | 43% |
| 6.09 | 39% |
| 6.10 | 36% |
| 6.11 | 33% |
| 6.12 | 30% |
| 7.01 | 27% |
| 7.02 | 24% |
| 7.03 | 21% |
| 7.04 | 19% |
| 7.05 | 16% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 4.12-5.01 | 3% | 302 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.02-5.03 | 3% | 349 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.04-5.05 | 4% | 368 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06-5.07 | 4% | 430 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08-5.09 | 4% | 445 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10-5.11 | 5% | 526 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.12-6.01 | 6% | 558 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.02-6.03 | 6% | 612 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.04-6.05 | 6% | 563 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.06-6.07 | 7% | 683 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.08-6.09 | 7% | 658 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.10-6.11 | 6% | 637 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12-7.01 | 6% | 581 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.02-7.03 | 5% | 516 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04-7.05 | 5% | 507 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06-7.07 | 4% | 390 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Sam LaPorta was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Carnell Tate WR · TEN 3%
- David Montgomery RB · HOU 3%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE 3%
Usually taken just after
- Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE 3%
- TreVeyon Henderson RB · NE 3%
- David Montgomery RB · HOU 3%
- Carnell Tate WR · TEN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Sam LaPorta was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.