LAR · Bye 11
Terrance Ferguson
LMD TE36 rest of season · 75.0 projected Full PPR points
Out this week
In season
Rest of season fantasy ranking
We project 75.0 points this season, TE36. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 8% of simulated seasons. That is 7.7 a game over 9.825 remaining games. Ruled out this week, so this projection is for the games after it. Down 10 since the Oct. 1 board.
Rest of season
TE36
181st by projected points
Projected
75.0
rest of season, Full PPR
Top 12
0%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 8% at TE
Movement
↓ 10
TE26 on Oct. 1, TE36 now
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
STATUS
Terrance Ferguson is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
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ADP UPDATE
Terrance Ferguson's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 166.3 to 182.0 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Terrance Ferguson has averaged +0.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs SF | 4.9 | 0.0 | -4.9 |
| Wk 2 | vs NYG | 2.9 | 17.4 | +14.5 |
| Wk 3 | @ DEN | 8.7 | 1.9 | -6.8 |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 75.0 points this season, TE36. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 8% of simulated seasons. That is 7.7 a game over 9.825 remaining games. Ruled out this week, so this projection is for the games after it. Down 10 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
7.7 / game
Over 9.825 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 8%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Terrance Ferguson #238 in 1QB and #236 in Superflex, TE36 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#238
TE36 · tier 52 · of 297
Superflex
#236
TE36 · tier 45 · of 303
- Last season 46.6 pts 4.2 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 65% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 2.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 6% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.05
pick 161.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.10
half of simulations take him by pick 166
Draft range
12.09 - 15.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 3,902 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.10 in 81% of simulations
Pick 166 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 3, the same seat picks again at 15.03, where he is available in 76% of simulations.
Slot 3's remaining turns: 14.10 81% · 15.03 76%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.12 and 15.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.08 | 82% |
| 14.09 | 82% |
| 14.10 | 81% |
| 14.11 | 80% |
| 14.12 | 80% |
| 15.01 | 79% |
| 15.02 | 78% |
| 15.03 | 76% |
| 15.04 | 75% |
| 15.05 | 73% |
| 15.06 | 72% |
| 15.07 | 70% |
| 15.08 | 69% |
| 15.09 | 67% |
| 15.10 | 66% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.09-12.10 | 4% | 364 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-12.12 | 4% | 414 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.02 | <1% | 33 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.04 | <1% | 47 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.06 | <1% | 46 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.08 | <1% | 45 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.10 | <1% | 36 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-13.12 | <1% | 60 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.02 | <1% | 97 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.04 | 1% | 106 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.06 | 1% | 109 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.08 | 1% | 114 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.10 | 1% | 146 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-14.12 | 1% | 149 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 3% | 272 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03-15.04 | 3% | 305 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.06 | 3% | 272 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07-15.08 | 3% | 294 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09-15.10 | 3% | 304 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 3902 simulations in which Terrance Ferguson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 2%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 2%
- Jayden Higgins WR · HOU 2%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 4%
- Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 2%
- Alvin Kamara RB · NO 2%
- Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Terrance Ferguson was selected in 3902 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.