HOU · Bye 8
Dalton Schultz
LMD TE9 for Week 4 · 10.8 projected Full PPR points · TE9 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 10.8 points this week, TE9. Top 3: 11% · Top 12: 39% · Top 24: 62% of simulated weeks. Down 7 since Week 3.
Week 4
TE9
91st by projected points
Rest of season
TE9
61st by projected points
Projected
10.8
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
39%
Top 3: 11% · Top 24: 62% at TE
Movement
↓ 7
TE2 in Week 3, TE9 now
Should you start Dalton Schultz in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Dalton Schultz TE9 for Week 4, inside the TE12 starter line. He finishes inside TE12 in 39% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
TE9 vs TE18 +9
LMD has him TE9. The fantasy draft market has him TE18, 9 places lower.
Our projection is higher than the outside forecast.
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-0.89 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+1.28 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.37 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-0.98 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Limited practice for Dalton Schultz
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Dalton Schultz catches three passes in Week 3
USA TODAY ·
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Is Dalton Schultz playing today? Quiet start vs Colts has fantasy managers concerned: 'Is he injured?'
hindustantimes.com ·
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Fantasy football Week 3 most added players: Kyler Murray, Emmett Johnson, Rashod Bateman, Dalton Schultz
Yahoo Sports ·
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AFC Notes: Dalton Schultz, Alec Pierce, Colts, Jaguars, Texans
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Dalton Schultz by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Dalton Schultz has averaged +4.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BUF | 5.9 | 7.5 | +1.6 |
| Wk 2 | vs CIN | 7.5 | 26.0 | +18.5 |
| Wk 3 | @ IND | 13.1 | 6.0 | -7.1 |
| Wk 4 | vs DAL | 10.8 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 153.4 points this season, TE9. Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 69% · Top 24: 98% of simulated seasons. That is 10.8 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 1 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
10.8 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 69% · Top 24: 98%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Dalton Schultz #160 in 1QB and #161 in Superflex, TE20 at his position. Age 30.
1QB
#160
TE20 · tier 37 · of 297
Superflex
#161
TE20 · tier 30 · of 303
- Last season 136.7 pts 8.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 98% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 18% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.05
pick 113.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.02
half of simulations take him by pick 110
Draft range
8.10 - 12.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,965 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.02 in 52% of simulations
Pick 110 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 11.11, where he is available in 15% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 10.02 52% · 11.11 15% · 12.02 12% · 13.11 3% · 14.02 3% · 15.11 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.04 and 11.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.12 | 57% |
| 10.01 | 55% |
| 10.02 | 52% |
| 10.03 | 50% |
| 10.04 | 47% |
| 10.05 | 45% |
| 10.06 | 43% |
| 10.07 | 41% |
| 10.08 | 38% |
| 10.09 | 36% |
| 10.10 | 34% |
| 10.11 | 32% |
| 10.12 | 31% |
| 11.01 | 29% |
| 11.02 | 27% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.10-8.11 | 5% | 462 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 4% | 442 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 4% | 434 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 5% | 484 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 492 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 5% | 492 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 5% | 543 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 5% | 501 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 5% | 490 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 4% | 420 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 5% | 476 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 4% | 421 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 4% | 352 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 3% | 346 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 3% | 335 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 3% | 274 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 3% | 279 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 2% | 240 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 2% | 221 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.01 | 2% | 197 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.03 | 2% | 166 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9965 simulations in which Dalton Schultz was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 2%
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 2%
- Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI 2%
- Travis Kelce TE · KC 2%
Usually taken just after
- Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF 2%
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 2%
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 2%
- Brock Purdy QB · SF 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Dalton Schultz was selected in 9965 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.