TEN · Bye 9
Gunnar Helm
LMD TE32 for Week 4 · 5.8 projected Full PPR points · TE35 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 5.8 points this week, TE32. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 12% · Top 24: 28% of simulated weeks. Down 6 since Week 3.
Week 4
TE32
173rd by projected points
Rest of season
TE35
178th by projected points
Projected
5.8
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
12%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 28% at TE
Movement
↓ 6
TE26 in Week 3, TE32 now
Should you start Gunnar Helm in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Gunnar Helm TE32 for Week 4, outside the TE12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside TE12 in 12% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.41 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.13 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.33 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.03 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Gunnar Helm has averaged -0.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NYJ | 4.7 | 6.8 | +2.1 |
| Wk 2 | vs PHI | 5.0 | 3.3 | -1.7 |
| Wk 3 | @ NYG | 5.9 | 3.4 | -2.5 |
| Wk 4 | @ BAL | 5.8 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 75.6 points this season, TE35. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 6% of simulated seasons. That is 5.6 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 1 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
5.6 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 6%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Gunnar Helm #164 in 1QB and #166 in Superflex, TE21 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#164
TE21 · tier 38 · of 297
Superflex
#166
TE21 · tier 31 · of 303
- Last season 69.7 pts 4.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 94% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 3.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 11% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.03
pick 170.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.04
half of simulations take him by pick 172
Draft range
14.05 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 2,408 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.04 in 89% of simulations
Pick 172 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.11 and 15.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.02 | 92% |
| 15.03 | 90% |
| 15.04 | 89% |
| 15.05 | 88% |
| 15.06 | 86% |
| 15.07 | 85% |
| 15.08 | 83% |
| 15.09 | 82% |
| 15.10 | 80% |
| 15.11 | 79% |
| 15.12 | 77% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.05 | <1% | 39 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06 | <1% | 52 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | <1% | 54 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | <1% | 66 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | <1% | 61 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | <1% | 69 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | <1% | 85 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | <1% | 77 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 1% | 117 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 1% | 134 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 1% | 125 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 1% | 129 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 159 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 1% | 138 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 1% | 142 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 1% | 142 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 1% | 136 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 1% | 149 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 157 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 2408 simulations in which Gunnar Helm was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 3%
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 3%
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Los Angeles Chargers DST · LAC 3%
Usually taken just after
- Harrison Butker K · KC 3%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 3%
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 3%
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Gunnar Helm was selected in 2408 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.