SEA · Bye 11
AJ Barner
LMD TE19 for Week 4 · 8.2 projected Full PPR points · TE20 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.2 points this week, TE19. Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 45% of simulated weeks. Up 16 since Week 3.
Week 4
TE19
131st by projected points
Rest of season
TE20
108th by projected points
Projected
8.2
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
25%
Top 3: 5% · Top 24: 45% at TE
Movement
↑ 16
TE35 in Week 3, TE19 now
Should you start AJ Barner in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks AJ Barner TE19 for Week 4, outside the TE12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside TE12 in 25% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.11 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.03 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.03 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.26 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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Seattle Seahawks tight end AJ Barner celebrates scoring a touchdown
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to AJ Barner by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games AJ Barner has averaged +3.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NE | 4.8 | 3.3 | -1.5 |
| Wk 2 | @ ARI | 3.4 | 7.9 | +4.5 |
| Wk 3 | @ WAS | 5.9 | 11.9 | +6.0 |
| Wk 4 | vs LAC | 8.2 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 115.6 points this season, TE20. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 15% · Top 24: 69% of simulated seasons. That is 8.3 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 4 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
8.3 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 15% · Top 24: 69%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has AJ Barner #120 in 1QB and #121 in Superflex, TE9 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#120
TE9 · tier 27 · of 297
Superflex
#121
TE9 · tier 21 · of 303
- Last season 121.3 pts 7.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 96% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 3.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 12% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.01
pick 144.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.07
half of simulations take him by pick 139
Draft range
11.04 - 15.06
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 7,475 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.07 in 65% of simulations
Pick 139 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 13.06, where he is available in 49% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 12.07 65% · 13.06 49% · 14.07 44% · 15.06 34%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.10 and 14.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.05 | 69% |
| 12.06 | 67% |
| 12.07 | 65% |
| 12.08 | 62% |
| 12.09 | 60% |
| 12.10 | 58% |
| 12.11 | 55% |
| 12.12 | 53% |
| 13.01 | 51% |
| 13.02 | 50% |
| 13.03 | 50% |
| 13.04 | 50% |
| 13.05 | 50% |
| 13.06 | 49% |
| 13.07 | 49% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 11.04-11.06 | 6% | 562 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.09 | 5% | 530 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.12 | 6% | 603 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.03 | 6% | 568 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.06 | 6% | 646 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.09 | 7% | 712 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.12 | 7% | 719 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.03 | <1% | 63 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.06 | <1% | 88 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.09 | <1% | 66 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.12 | 1% | 103 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.03 | 1% | 146 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.06 | 2% | 175 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.09 | 2% | 203 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.12 | 2% | 233 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.03 | 4% | 369 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.06 | 4% | 389 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 7475 simulations in which AJ Barner was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 2%
- Matthew Golden WR · GB 2%
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 2%
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 2%
Usually taken just after
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 2%
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 2%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
AJ Barner was selected in 7475 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.