LMD Fantasy Support LMD
TE

SF · Bye 8

George Kittle

LMD TE4 for Week 4 · 12.9 projected Full PPR points · TE4 rest of season

Questionable

Regular season

Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 12.9 points this week, TE4. Top 3: 18% · Top 12: 46% · Top 24: 66% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Up 5 since Week 3.

Week 4

TE4

68th by projected points

Rest of season

TE4

45th by projected points

Projected

12.9

week 4, Full PPR

Top 12

46%

Top 3: 18% · Top 24: 66% at TE

Movement

↑ 5

TE9 in Week 3, TE4 now

Should you start George Kittle in Week 4?

Strong start

Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks George Kittle TE4 for Week 4, inside the TE12 starter line. He finishes inside TE12 in 46% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All TE rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to George Kittle by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 3 completed games George Kittle has averaged +6.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for George Kittle, Full PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 @ LAR 8.3 3.2 -5.1
Wk 2 vs MIA 8.9 18.0 +9.1
Wk 3 vs ARI 11.0 26.2 +15.2
Wk 4 vs DEN 12.9 Pending —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Draft Return

How he compares with his draft price

The draft market had him at TE7. For the rest of the season LMD has him 3 spots higher, at TE4.

Preseason market: TE7 · ADP 88.6

Season to date

Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.

Rest of season

TE4 +3

LMD has him 3 spots higher than his TE7 draft price.

Week 4

TE4 +3

LMD has him 3 spots higher than his TE7 draft price.

Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026

Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.

TE7 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.

ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 174.7 points this season, TE4. Top 3: 26% · Top 12: 88% · Top 24: 100% of simulated seasons. That is 13.1 a game over 14 remaining games. Listed questionable.

Per game

13.1 / game

Over 14 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 26% · Top 12: 88% · Top 24: 100%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE

Market input

broad

Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has George Kittle #128 in 1QB and #127 in Superflex, TE12 at his position. Age 32.

1QB

#128

TE12 · tier 28 · of 297

Superflex

#127

TE12 · tier 22 · of 303

  • Last season 133.0 pts 12.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 78% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Touches 6.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 21% of his team's targets.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty TE rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

9.05

pick 100.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

9.03

half of simulations take him by pick 99

Draft range

7.11 - 10.12

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in every one

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams also published: 10 teams, 8 teams
Scoring Full PPR also published: Half PPR, Standard
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 9.03 in 52% of simulations

Pick 99 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 3, the same seat picks again at 10.10, where he is available in 13% of simulations.

Slot 3's remaining turns: 9.03 52% · 10.10 13% · 11.03 8% · 12.10 <1% · 13.03 <1% · 14.10 <1% · 15.03 <1%

The middle half of simulations take him between 8.06 and 10.02.

George Kittle still on the board
PickAvailable
9.01 58%
9.02 55%
9.03 52%
9.04 50%
9.05 47%
9.06 44%
9.07 42%
9.08 39%
9.09 37%
9.10 34%
9.11 32%
9.12 30%
10.01 27%
10.02 25%
10.03 23%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which George Kittle was selected at each pick, 7.11-7.12 through 10.11-10.12. He goes earlier than this window in 10%, later in 10%.
Draft position distribution for George Kittle
PickShare of simulationsCount
7.11-7.124%377 of 10000 simulations
8.01-8.024%396 of 10000 simulations
8.03-8.044%419 of 10000 simulations
8.05-8.065%479 of 10000 simulations
8.07-8.085%508 of 10000 simulations
8.09-8.105%509 of 10000 simulations
8.11-8.126%559 of 10000 simulations
9.01-9.026%592 of 10000 simulations
9.03-9.045%533 of 10000 simulations
9.05-9.065%478 of 10000 simulations
9.07-9.085%510 of 10000 simulations
9.09-9.105%492 of 10000 simulations
9.11-9.125%469 of 10000 simulations
10.01-10.024%383 of 10000 simulations
10.03-10.043%320 of 10000 simulations
10.05-10.063%314 of 10000 simulations
10.07-10.083%278 of 10000 simulations
10.09-10.102%245 of 10000 simulations
10.11-10.122%205 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 10000 simulations in which George Kittle was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

George Kittle was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
October 1, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Full PPR 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.