DAL · Bye 14
Jake Ferguson
LMD TE21 for Week 4 · 8.0 projected Full PPR points · TE23 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.0 points this week, TE21. Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 24% · Top 24: 44% of simulated weeks. Down 2 since Week 3.
Week 4
TE21
135th by projected points
Rest of season
TE23
115th by projected points
Projected
8.0
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
24%
Top 3: 5% · Top 24: 44% at TE
Movement
↓ 2
TE19 in Week 3, TE21 now
Should you start Jake Ferguson in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Jake Ferguson TE21 for Week 4, outside the TE12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside TE12 in 24% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
TE21 vs TE13 -8
LMD has him TE21. The fantasy draft market has him TE13, 8 places higher.
Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+0.52 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.49 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.03 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-0.96 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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Fantasy Football Week 4 Tight Ends Projections and Rankings: Brock Bowers Resurrects, Jake Ferguson is Bland
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Dallas Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson and WRs CeeDee Lamb and Ryan Flournoy celebrate during the game against the Baltimore Ravens.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Jake Ferguson scores again
Yahoo Sports ·
-
The NFL doesn't believe Jake Ferguson, and his strange “Gatorade” is costing him thousands of dollars
bundle.app ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Jake Ferguson's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 146.7 to 151.8 over the last 7 days.
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jake Ferguson by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Jake Ferguson has averaged +3.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ NYG | 7.2 | 2.6 | -4.6 |
| Wk 2 | vs WAS | 5.0 | 20.3 | +15.3 |
| Wk 3 | vs BAL | 8.2 | 9.3 | +1.1 |
| Wk 4 | @ HOU | 8.0 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE14. For the rest of the season LMD has him 9 spots lower, at TE23.
Preseason market: TE14 · ADP 137.4
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE23 −9
LMD has him 9 spots lower than his TE14 draft price.
Week 4
TE21 −7
LMD has him 7 spots lower than his TE14 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE14 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 112.1 points this season, TE23. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 64% of simulated seasons. That is 8.0 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 3 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
8.0 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 64%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jake Ferguson #127 in 1QB and #126 in Superflex, TE11 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#127
TE11 · tier 28 · of 297
Superflex
#126
TE11 · tier 22 · of 303
- Last season 147.1 pts 8.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 95% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.1 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 17% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.04
pick 112 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.02
half of simulations take him by pick 110
Draft range
8.09 - 12.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,966 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.02 in 50% of simulations
Pick 110 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 11.11, where he is available in 14% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 10.02 50% · 11.11 14% · 12.02 11% · 13.11 3% · 14.02 2% · 15.11 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.03 and 11.01.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.12 | 55% |
| 10.01 | 53% |
| 10.02 | 50% |
| 10.03 | 48% |
| 10.04 | 46% |
| 10.05 | 43% |
| 10.06 | 41% |
| 10.07 | 39% |
| 10.08 | 37% |
| 10.09 | 35% |
| 10.10 | 33% |
| 10.11 | 31% |
| 10.12 | 29% |
| 11.01 | 27% |
| 11.02 | 25% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.09-8.10 | 5% | 455 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 5% | 482 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 4% | 438 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 5% | 509 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 5% | 475 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 5% | 472 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 5% | 547 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 5% | 453 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 5% | 464 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 4% | 448 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 4% | 417 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 4% | 406 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 4% | 382 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 3% | 338 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.04 | 3% | 261 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.06 | 3% | 287 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.08 | 2% | 217 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.10 | 2% | 213 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-11.12 | 2% | 198 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.02 | 2% | 177 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9966 simulations in which Jake Ferguson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Travis Kelce TE · KC 3%
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
- Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF 2%
Usually taken just after
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 2%
- Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF 2%
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jake Ferguson was selected in 9966 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.