DAL · Bye 14
Jake Ferguson
Jake Ferguson comes off the board at 10.03 on average in 12-team Full PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 9.12.
12-team Full PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated August 20, 2026
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulated ADP
10.03
pick 111.4 overall, on average
Median pick
9.12
half of simulations take him by pick 108
Draft range
8.07 - 12.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,911 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 9.12 in 52% of simulations
Pick 108 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 10.01, where he is available in 50% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 9.12 52% · 10.01 50% · 11.12 14% · 12.01 13% · 13.12 4% · 14.01 4% · 15.12 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.02 and 11.02.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.10 | 56% |
| 9.11 | 54% |
| 9.12 | 52% |
| 10.01 | 50% |
| 10.02 | 48% |
| 10.03 | 46% |
| 10.04 | 44% |
| 10.05 | 41% |
| 10.06 | 39% |
| 10.07 | 38% |
| 10.08 | 36% |
| 10.09 | 34% |
| 10.10 | 32% |
| 10.11 | 31% |
| 10.12 | 29% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.07-8.08 | 4% | 422 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 5% | 473 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 5% | 506 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 4% | 445 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 5% | 486 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 5% | 469 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 5% | 463 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 4% | 441 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 4% | 414 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 4% | 420 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 4% | 383 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 3% | 335 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 3% | 335 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 4% | 356 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 2% | 239 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.04 | 3% | 268 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.06 | 3% | 256 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.08 | 2% | 221 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.10 | 2% | 207 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-11.12 | 2% | 213 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.02 | 2% | 176 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03 | <1% | 95 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9911 simulations in which Jake Ferguson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
- Brock Purdy QB · SF 2%
- George Kittle TE · SF 2%
Usually taken just after
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 2%
- Travis Kelce TE · KC 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
- Brenton Strange TE · JAX 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. Nothing is estimated at page load: the batch runs offline and this page reads the result.
Jake Ferguson was selected in 9911 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here has that count behind it, which is what it should be judged on.
We license no ADP feed, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.1
- Generated
- August 20, 2026
- Player dataset
- sleeper@2026-08-19T17:30:21.894Z
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.