NFL · 2026 Week 3
Week 3 Half PPR TE Rankings
Half PPR, 1QB · 68 players projected · updated September 22, 2026
See how our Week 2 rankings performed
Our Week 3 quarterback rankings are being corrected and are not shown. The board on this page was generated before a fix to how we model whether a quarterback plays at all, and it ranked several backups among the starters. Running backs, receivers and tight ends are unaffected and are current. No market snapshot: no sportsbook or prediction-market prices reached this board. Sportsbook prices reached 0 of 143 fantasy-relevant players (0%), so the market half of this board is thinner than a full week's.
How these rankings work
How these rankings are built
We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.
We then update those expectations for Week 3 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.
We then simulate the week 4,000 times and rank players by the projected fantasy points those simulations produce.
This board is priced in Half PPR. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.
What the percentages mean
For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.
- Top 3
- how often he finishes among the top three at his position
- Top 12
- how often he finishes in the top 12
- Top 24
- how often he finishes in the top 24
A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.
How often a strong start lasts
Since 1999, 54% of TEs inside the top 12 through Week 2 finished the season inside the top 12. Measured over 325 TE-seasons from 1999-2025, in the same scoring rule as this board.
What stands out this week
68 TEs ranked for Week 3. Trey McBride leads at 12.3 projected points.
Tier break
1.9 projected points separate TE1 Trey McBride from TE2 Dalton Schultz.
Biggest differences from the draft market
Ahead
- Austin HooperTE29Our projection is higher than the outside forecastTop 3: 3% · Top 12: 14% · Top 24: 27% +32 vs. TE61
- Blake WhiteheartTE36Our projection is higher than the outside forecastTop 3: 2% · Top 12: 12% · Top 24: 24% +24 vs. TE60
- Dalton SchultzTE2Our projection is higher than the outside forecastTop 3: 19% · Top 12: 49% · Top 24: 75% +18 vs. TE20
Behind
- Colston LovelandTE20Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 5% · Top 12: 21% · Top 24: 41% -17 vs. TE3
- Kyle PittsTE21Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 4% · Top 12: 21% · Top 24: 40% -13 vs. TE8
- Evan EngramTE37Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 1% · Top 12: 10% · Top 24: 23% -9 vs. TE28
Movement
Risers
- Dalton SchultzTE2Top 3: 19% · Top 12: 49% · Top 24: 75% ↑ 12
- Pat FreiermuthTE11Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 33% · Top 24: 55% ↑ 10
- Mark AndrewsTE9Top 3: 11% · Top 12: 36% · Top 24: 60% ↑ 7
Fallers
- Colston LovelandTE20Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 21% · Top 24: 41% ↓ 16
- Tucker KraftTE14Top 3: 7% · Top 12: 29% · Top 24: 53% ↓ 6
- Dallas GoedertTE16Top 3: 7% · Top 12: 27% · Top 24: 45% ↓ 5
Positional movement since the final Week 2 board, among players inside TE12 either week. Players not ranked at their position then are excluded.
| # | Pos | Player | Pos rank | Proj | Outcome profile | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TE | Trey McBrideARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 25% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 19%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE9 at the median, TE3 - TE22 in the middle half, and TE1 - TE30 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 25%Top 12: 57%Top 24: 81% |
TE1— | 12.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 25% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 19%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE9 at the median, TE3 - TE22 in the middle half, and TE1 - TE30 in the middle 80%. | |
| 2 | TE | Dalton SchultzHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 25%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE13 at the median, TE5 - TE25 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE35 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 19%Top 12: 49%Top 24: 75% |
TE2↑ 12 | 10.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 25%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE13 at the median, TE5 - TE25 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE35 in the middle 80%. | |
| 3 | TE | Travis KelceKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 18% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 28%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE14 at the median, TE5 - TE26 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE36 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 18%Top 12: 47%Top 24: 72% |
TE3↑ 6 | 10.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 18% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 28%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE14 at the median, TE5 - TE26 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE36 in the middle 80%. | |
| 4 | TE | Isaiah LikelyNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 17% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE15 at the median, TE5 - TE27 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE38 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 17%Top 12: 46%Top 24: 70% |
TE4↑ 3 | 9.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 17% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE15 at the median, TE5 - TE27 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE38 in the middle 80%. | |
| 5 | TE | Dalton KincaidBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 29%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE15 at the median, TE6 - TE26 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE36 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 16%Top 12: 45%Top 24: 71% |
TE5↑ 5 | 9.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 29%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE15 at the median, TE6 - TE26 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE36 in the middle 80%. | |
| 6 | TE | Sam LaPortaDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 34%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE17 at the median, TE6 - TE28 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE39 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 15%Top 12: 43%Top 24: 66% |
TE6↓ 3 | 9.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 34%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE17 at the median, TE6 - TE28 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE39 in the middle 80%. | |
| 7 | TE | Tyler WarrenIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 36%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE17 at the median, TE6 - TE30 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE41 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 14%Top 12: 42%Top 24: 64% |
TE7↓ 2 | 9.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 36%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE17 at the median, TE6 - TE30 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE41 in the middle 80%. | |
| 8 | TE | George KittleSFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 39%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE19 at the median, TE7 - TE32 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE46 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 13%Top 12: 39%Top 24: 61% |
TE8↓ 2 | 8.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 39%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE19 at the median, TE7 - TE32 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE46 in the middle 80%. | |
| 9 | TE | Mark AndrewsBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 40%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE8 - TE31 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE44 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 36%Top 24: 60% |
TE9↑ 7 | 8.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 40%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE8 - TE31 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE44 in the middle 80%. | |
| 10 | TE | Juwan JohnsonNOQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 44%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE22 at the median, TE8 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE50 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 34%Top 24: 56% |
TE10↑ 7 | 7.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 44%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE22 at the median, TE8 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE50 in the middle 80%. | |
| 11 | TE | Pat FreiermuthPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 45%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE22 at the median, TE9 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE48 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 33%Top 24: 55% |
TE11↑ 10 | 7.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 45%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE22 at the median, TE9 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE48 in the middle 80%. | |
| 12 | TE | Harold Fannin Jr.CLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE10 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE48 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 30%Top 24: 53% |
TE12— | 7.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE10 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE48 in the middle 80%. | |
| 13 | TE | Hunter HenryNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE10 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE48 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 30%Top 24: 53% |
TE13↑ 9 | 7.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE10 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE48 in the middle 80%. | |
| 14 | TE | Tucker KraftGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE10 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE47 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 29%Top 24: 53% |
TE14↓ 6 | 7.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE10 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE47 in the middle 80%. | |
| 15 | TE | T.J. HockensonMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE10 - TE36 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE50 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 28%Top 24: 51% |
TE15↑ 3 | 6.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE10 - TE36 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE50 in the middle 80%. | |
| 16 | TE | Dallas GoedertPHIDDoubtful Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 55%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE11 - TE42 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE59 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 27%Top 24: 45% |
TE16↓ 5 | 6.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 55%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE11 - TE42 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE59 in the middle 80%. | |
| 17 | TE | Terrance FergusonLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE12 - TE39 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE54 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 26%Top 24: 46% |
TE17↑ 19 | 6.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE12 - TE39 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE54 in the middle 80%. | |
| 18 | TE | Jake FergusonDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE12 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE54 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 44% |
TE18↑ 2 | 6.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE12 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE54 in the middle 80%. | |
| 19 | TE | Kenyon SadiqNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 57%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE13 - TE42 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE57 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 43% |
TE19↓ 4 | 6.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 57%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE13 - TE42 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE57 in the middle 80%. | |
| 20 | TE | Colston LovelandCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE29 at the median, TE15 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE58 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 21%Top 24: 41% |
TE20↓ 16 | 5.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE29 at the median, TE15 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE58 in the middle 80%. | |
| 21 | TE | Kyle PittsATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE29 at the median, TE15 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE57 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 21%Top 24: 40% |
TE21↓ 8 | 5.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE29 at the median, TE15 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE57 in the middle 80%. | |
| 22 | TE | Cade OttonTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE16 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE59 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 41% |
TE22↑ 7 | 5.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE16 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE59 in the middle 80%. | |
| 23 | TE | Mike GesickiCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE31 at the median, TE16 - TE48 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE65 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 38% |
TE23↓ 4 | 5.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE31 at the median, TE16 - TE48 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE65 in the middle 80%. | |
| 24 | TE | Gunnar HelmTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE34 at the median, TE20 - TE48 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE65 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 16%Top 24: 32% |
TE24↑ 2 | 4.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE34 at the median, TE20 - TE48 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE65 in the middle 80%. | |
| 25 | TE | Michael MayerLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 67%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE34 at the median, TE20 - TE49 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE64 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 16%Top 24: 33% |
TE25↓ 1 | 4.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 67%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE34 at the median, TE20 - TE49 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE64 in the middle 80%. | |
| 26 | TE | AJ BarnerSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE39 at the median, TE19 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE72 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 16%Top 24: 30% |
TE26↑ 6 | 4.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE39 at the median, TE19 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE72 in the middle 80%. | |
| 27 | TE | Brenton StrangeJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE22 - TE53 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE69 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 29% |
TE27↑ 1 | 4.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE22 - TE53 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE69 in the middle 80%. | |
| 28 | TE | Tommy TrembleCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE22 - TE53 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE69 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 28% |
TE28↑ 2 | 4.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE22 - TE53 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE69 in the middle 80%. | |
| 29 | TE | Austin HooperATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE39 at the median, TE23 - TE58 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE76 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 27% |
TE29NEW | 4.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE39 at the median, TE23 - TE58 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE76 in the middle 80%. | |
| 30 | TE | Oronde Gadsden IILAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE23 - TE54 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE71 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 28% |
TE30↑ 14 | 4.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE23 - TE54 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE71 in the middle 80%. | |
| 31 | TE | Darren WallerCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE39 at the median, TE24 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE73 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 26% |
TE31↑ 8 | 4.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE39 at the median, TE24 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE73 in the middle 80%. | |
| 32 | TE | Stephen CarlsonCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE44 at the median, TE24 - TE66 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE84 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 25% |
TE32NEW | 3.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE44 at the median, TE24 - TE66 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE84 in the middle 80%. | |
| 33 | TE | Greg DulcichMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE25 - TE57 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE73 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 25% |
TE33↑ 2 | 3.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE25 - TE57 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE73 in the middle 80%. | |
| 34 | TE | Josiah DeguaraPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE44 at the median, TE25 - TE66 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 24% |
TE34NEW | 3.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE44 at the median, TE25 - TE66 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE86 in the middle 80%. | |
| 35 | TE | Chris MyarickLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE43 at the median, TE24 - TE63 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE84 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 25% |
TE35NEW | 3.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE43 at the median, TE24 - TE63 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE84 in the middle 80%. | |
| 36 | TE | Blake WhiteheartCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE41 at the median, TE25 - TE59 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE75 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 24% |
TE36NEW | 3.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE41 at the median, TE25 - TE59 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE75 in the middle 80%. | |
| 37 | TE | Evan EngramDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE26 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE72 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 23% |
TE37↓ 14 | 3.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE26 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE72 in the middle 80%. | |
| 38 | TE | Theo JohnsonNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE43 at the median, TE27 - TE60 in the middle half, and TE13 - TE76 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 22% |
TE38NEW | 3.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE43 at the median, TE27 - TE60 in the middle half, and TE13 - TE76 in the middle 80%. | |
| 39 | TE | Ja'Tavion SandersCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE46 at the median, TE27 - TE68 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 22% |
TE39NEW | 3.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE46 at the median, TE27 - TE68 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE88 in the middle 80%. | |
| 40 | TE | Darnell WashingtonPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE46 at the median, TE30 - TE63 in the middle half, and TE14 - TE80 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 19% |
TE40↓ 2 | 3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE46 at the median, TE30 - TE63 in the middle half, and TE14 - TE80 in the middle 80%. | |
| 41 | TE | Luke SchoonmakerDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE48 at the median, TE30 - TE67 in the middle half, and TE13 - TE85 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 19% |
TE41NEW | 3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE48 at the median, TE30 - TE67 in the middle half, and TE13 - TE85 in the middle 80%. | |
| 42 | TE | Mark RedmanGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE53 at the median, TE31 - TE75 in the middle half, and TE14 - TE95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 19% |
TE42NEW | 3.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE53 at the median, TE31 - TE75 in the middle half, and TE14 - TE95 in the middle 80%. | |
| 43 | TE | Dawson KnoxBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE49 at the median, TE32 - TE68 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE85 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 18% |
TE43↑ 3 | 3.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE49 at the median, TE32 - TE68 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE85 in the middle 80%. | |
| 44 | TE | Colby ParkinsonLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE48 at the median, TE32 - TE66 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE82 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 17% |
TE44↓ 10 | 3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE48 at the median, TE32 - TE66 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE82 in the middle 80%. | |
| 45 | TE | Noah FantNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE51 at the median, TE33 - TE69 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE87 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 17% |
TE45↓ 18 | 3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE51 at the median, TE33 - TE69 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE87 in the middle 80%. | |
| 46 | TE | Jake BriningstoolKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE53 at the median, TE34 - TE74 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 17% |
TE46NEW | 2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE53 at the median, TE34 - TE74 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE92 in the middle 80%. | |
| 47 | TE | Cole KmetCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE51 at the median, TE34 - TE70 in the middle half, and TE17 - TE87 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 15% |
TE47↓ 14 | 2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE51 at the median, TE34 - TE70 in the middle half, and TE17 - TE87 in the middle 80%. | |
| 48 | TE | Noah GrayKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE55 at the median, TE36 - TE74 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE89 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 15% |
TE48NEW | 2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE55 at the median, TE36 - TE74 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE89 in the middle 80%. | |
| 49 | TE | Johnny MundtPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE53 at the median, TE35 - TE75 in the middle half, and TE17 - TE93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 15% |
TE49NEW | 2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE53 at the median, TE35 - TE75 in the middle half, and TE17 - TE93 in the middle 80%. | |
| 50 | TE | Drew SampleCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE56 at the median, TE37 - TE77 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 14% |
TE50↓ 8 | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE56 at the median, TE37 - TE77 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE95 in the middle 80%. | |
| 51 | TE | Nate AdkinsDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE67 at the median, TE42 - TE86 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE102 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 17% |
TE51NEW | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE67 at the median, TE42 - TE86 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE102 in the middle 80%. | |
| 52 | TE | Adam TrautmanDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE60 at the median, TE39 - TE81 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 14% |
TE52↓ 7 | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE60 at the median, TE39 - TE81 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE98 in the middle 80%. | |
| 53 | TE | Foster MoreauHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE57 at the median, TE39 - TE76 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 12% |
TE53↓ 6 | 2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE57 at the median, TE39 - TE76 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE92 in the middle 80%. | |
| 54 | TE | Payne DurhamTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE61 at the median, TE38 - TE84 in the middle half, and TE19 - TE103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 13% |
TE54NEW | 2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE61 at the median, TE38 - TE84 in the middle half, and TE19 - TE103 in the middle 80%. | |
| 55 | TE | Erick AllCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE60 at the median, TE40 - TE81 in the middle half, and TE20 - TE97 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 12% |
TE55NEW | 2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE60 at the median, TE40 - TE81 in the middle half, and TE20 - TE97 in the middle 80%. | |
| 56 | TE | Tyler ConklinDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE64 at the median, TE42 - TE87 in the middle half, and TE20 - TE105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 12% |
TE56NEW | 2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE64 at the median, TE42 - TE87 in the middle half, and TE20 - TE105 in the middle 80%. | |
| 57 | TE | Josh OliverMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE58 at the median, TE40 - TE77 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 11% |
TE57↓ 16 | 2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE58 at the median, TE40 - TE77 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE93 in the middle 80%. | |
| 58 | TE | Jonnu SmithGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE62 at the median, TE42 - TE83 in the middle half, and TE22 - TE100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 11% |
TE58↓ 21 | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE62 at the median, TE42 - TE83 in the middle half, and TE22 - TE100 in the middle 80%. | |
| 59 | TE | Brock WrightDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE61 at the median, TE43 - TE80 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 11% |
TE59NEW | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE61 at the median, TE43 - TE80 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE95 in the middle 80%. | |
| 60 | TE | Jeremy RuckertNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE63 at the median, TE44 - TE82 in the middle half, and TE25 - TE98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 10% |
TE60NEW | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE63 at the median, TE44 - TE82 in the middle half, and TE25 - TE98 in the middle 80%. | |
| 61 | TE | Davis AllenLARQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE74 at the median, TE50 - TE95 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE111 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 13% |
TE61NEW | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE74 at the median, TE50 - TE95 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE111 in the middle 80%. | |
| 62 | TE | Mason TaylorNYJQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE67 at the median, TE44 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE22 - TE107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 11% |
TE62↓ 22 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE67 at the median, TE44 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE22 - TE107 in the middle 80%. | |
| 63 | TE | Elijah ArroyoSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE66 at the median, TE46 - TE86 in the middle half, and TE24 - TE103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10% |
TE63NEW | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE66 at the median, TE46 - TE86 in the middle half, and TE24 - TE103 in the middle 80%. | |
| 64 | TE | Mitchell EvansCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE65 at the median, TE46 - TE84 in the middle half, and TE23 - TE100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 10% |
TE64NEW | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE65 at the median, TE46 - TE84 in the middle half, and TE23 - TE100 in the middle 80%. | |
| 65 | TE | E.J. JenkinsPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE70 at the median, TE47 - TE92 in the middle half, and TE26 - TE107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9% |
TE65NEW | 2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE70 at the median, TE47 - TE92 in the middle half, and TE26 - TE107 in the middle 80%. | |
| 66 | TE | Tyler HigbeeLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE69 at the median, TE47 - TE89 in the middle half, and TE25 - TE105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10% |
TE66NEW | 2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE69 at the median, TE47 - TE89 in the middle half, and TE25 - TE105 in the middle 80%. | |
| 67 | TE | Cameron LatuNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE70 at the median, TE49 - TE91 in the middle half, and TE28 - TE105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9% |
TE67NEW | 2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE70 at the median, TE49 - TE91 in the middle half, and TE28 - TE105 in the middle 80%. | |
| 68 | TE | Drake DabneyGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE74 at the median, TE51 - TE95 in the middle half, and TE26 - TE111 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10% |
TE68NEW | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE74 at the median, TE51 - TE95 in the middle half, and TE26 - TE111 in the middle 80%. |
Simulated finishes
This board is ranked by projected fantasy points. The map shows where those same players finished at their own position across the 4,000 simulated weeks the projections came from.
Box: the middle half of a player's simulated finishes. Line: his median. Thin bar: the middle 80%. Two players whose boxes overlap are two players this board does not separate.
Week 3 TE outcome map: the positional finish each player reaches across the 4,000 simulated weeks, as a median, a middle half and a middle 80%. The board itself is ranked by projected fantasy points.
Projected rank
Median finish
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TE1 Trey McBrideTE9Trey McBride is ranked TE1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE9 at the median, TE3 - TE22 in the middle half, and TE1 - TE30 in the middle 80%.
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TE2 Dalton SchultzTE13Dalton Schultz is ranked TE2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE13 at the median, TE5 - TE25 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE35 in the middle 80%.
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TE3 Travis KelceTE14Travis Kelce is ranked TE3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE14 at the median, TE5 - TE26 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE36 in the middle 80%.
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TE4 Isaiah LikelyTE15Isaiah Likely is ranked TE4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE15 at the median, TE5 - TE27 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE38 in the middle 80%.
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TE5 Dalton KincaidTE15Dalton Kincaid is ranked TE5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE15 at the median, TE6 - TE26 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE36 in the middle 80%.
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TE6 Sam LaPortaTE17Sam LaPorta is ranked TE6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE17 at the median, TE6 - TE28 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE39 in the middle 80%.
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TE7 Tyler WarrenTE17Tyler Warren is ranked TE7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE17 at the median, TE6 - TE30 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE41 in the middle 80%.
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TE8 George KittleTE19George Kittle is ranked TE8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE19 at the median, TE7 - TE32 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE46 in the middle 80%.
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TE9 Mark AndrewsTE20Mark Andrews is ranked TE9 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE8 - TE31 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE44 in the middle 80%.
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TE10 Juwan JohnsonTE22Juwan Johnson is ranked TE10 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE22 at the median, TE8 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE50 in the middle 80%.
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TE11 Pat FreiermuthTE22Pat Freiermuth is ranked TE11 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE22 at the median, TE9 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE48 in the middle 80%.
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TE12 Harold Fannin Jr.TE23Harold Fannin Jr. is ranked TE12 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE10 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE48 in the middle 80%.
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TE13 Hunter HenryTE23Hunter Henry is ranked TE13 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE10 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE48 in the middle 80%.
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TE14 Tucker KraftTE23Tucker Kraft is ranked TE14 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE10 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE47 in the middle 80%.
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TE15 T.J. HockensonTE24T.J. Hockenson is ranked TE15 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE10 - TE36 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE50 in the middle 80%.
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TE16 Dallas GoedertTE27Dallas Goedert is ranked TE16 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE11 - TE42 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE59 in the middle 80%.
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TE17 Terrance FergusonTE26Terrance Ferguson is ranked TE17 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE12 - TE39 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE54 in the middle 80%.
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TE18 Jake FergusonTE27Jake Ferguson is ranked TE18 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE12 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE54 in the middle 80%.
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TE19 Kenyon SadiqTE28Kenyon Sadiq is ranked TE19 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE13 - TE42 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE57 in the middle 80%.
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TE20 Colston LovelandTE29Colston Loveland is ranked TE20 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE29 at the median, TE15 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE58 in the middle 80%.
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TE21 Kyle PittsTE29Kyle Pitts is ranked TE21 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE29 at the median, TE15 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE57 in the middle 80%.
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TE22 Cade OttonTE28Cade Otton is ranked TE22 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE16 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE59 in the middle 80%.
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TE23 Mike GesickiTE31Mike Gesicki is ranked TE23 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE31 at the median, TE16 - TE48 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE65 in the middle 80%.
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TE24 Gunnar HelmTE34Gunnar Helm is ranked TE24 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE34 at the median, TE20 - TE48 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE65 in the middle 80%.
Show TE25 - TE36
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TE25 Michael MayerTE34Michael Mayer is ranked TE25 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE34 at the median, TE20 - TE49 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE64 in the middle 80%.
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TE26 AJ BarnerTE39AJ Barner is ranked TE26 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE39 at the median, TE19 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE72 in the middle 80%.
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TE27 Brenton StrangeTE37Brenton Strange is ranked TE27 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE22 - TE53 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE69 in the middle 80%.
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TE28 Tommy TrembleTE37Tommy Tremble is ranked TE28 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE22 - TE53 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE69 in the middle 80%.
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TE29 Austin HooperTE39Austin Hooper is ranked TE29 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE39 at the median, TE23 - TE58 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE76 in the middle 80%.
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TE30 Oronde Gadsden IITE37Oronde Gadsden II is ranked TE30 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE23 - TE54 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE71 in the middle 80%.
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TE31 Darren WallerTE39Darren Waller is ranked TE31 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE39 at the median, TE24 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE73 in the middle 80%.
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TE32 Stephen CarlsonTE44Stephen Carlson is ranked TE32 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE44 at the median, TE24 - TE66 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE84 in the middle 80%.
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TE33 Greg DulcichTE40Greg Dulcich is ranked TE33 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE25 - TE57 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE73 in the middle 80%.
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TE34 Josiah DeguaraTE44Josiah Deguara is ranked TE34 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE44 at the median, TE25 - TE66 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE86 in the middle 80%.
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TE35 Chris MyarickTE43Chris Myarick is ranked TE35 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE43 at the median, TE24 - TE63 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE84 in the middle 80%.
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TE36 Blake WhiteheartTE41Blake Whiteheart is ranked TE36 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE41 at the median, TE25 - TE59 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE75 in the middle 80%.
Simulated positional finish. The scale is compressed to the right, so equal distances are not equal numbers of places.
The axis compresses lower-ranked finishes so the top of the board stays readable. Use the printed ranges for exact finish positions.
How these are made
This board was built from 2026 usage for 68% of the board, draft position for 100%, an outside projection for 58%, an official status for 81%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Half PPR, 1QB.
Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured September 22, 2026 18:57 UTC. Movement is previous - current; positive means the player moved up the board (a smaller rank number), measured in positional rank against the final Week 2 board generated before that week's first kickoff (September 17, 2026). Model rankings-v1.3.0, board captured 2026-09-22.
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections).