CHI · Bye 10 · Rookie
Sam Roush
LMD TE67 for Week 4 · 2.3 projected Half PPR points · TE65 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 2.3 points this week, TE67. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 10% of simulated weeks. Up 6 since Week 3.
Week 4
TE67
313th by projected points
Rest of season
TE65
303rd by projected points
Projected
2.3
week 4, Half PPR
Top 12
3%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 10% at TE
Movement
↑ 6
TE73 in Week 3, TE67 now
Should you start Sam Roush in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Sam Roush TE67 for Week 4, outside the TE12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside TE12 in 3% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.08 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.16 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.36 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.02 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Sam Roush has averaged +0.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 2 | — | — | 1.4 | — |
| Wk 3 | vs PHI | 1.7 | 2.1 | +0.4 |
| Wk 4 | vs NYJ | 2.3 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 37.9 points this season, TE65. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 2.3 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 3 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
2.3 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Sam Roush #230 in 1QB and #232 in Superflex, TE34 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 22.
1QB
#230
TE34 · tier 51 · of 297 · rookie 39 of 52
Superflex
#232
TE34 · tier 44 · of 303 · rookie 39 of 52
- Draft capital Round 3, pick 69 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty TE rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.04
pick 39.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.05
half of simulations take him by pick 41
Draft range
3.06 - 4.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 7,636 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.05 in 65% of simulations
Pick 41 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.12 and 4.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.03 | 72% |
| 4.04 | 69% |
| 4.05 | 65% |
| 4.06 | 61% |
| 4.07 | 57% |
| 4.08 | 52% |
| 4.09 | 47% |
| 4.10 | 42% |
| 4.11 | 36% |
| 4.12 | 30% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.06 | 1% | 143 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 1% | 144 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 2% | 179 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 2% | 181 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 3% | 250 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 3% | 269 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 3% | 297 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 3% | 314 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 3% | 330 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 4% | 388 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 4% | 400 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 4% | 382 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 4% | 418 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 5% | 451 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 5% | 493 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 5% | 518 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 6% | 569 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11 | 6% | 618 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 7636 simulations in which Sam Roush was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Max Klare TE · LAR 5%
- Riley Nowakowski TE · PIT 5%
- Marlin Klein TE · HOU 5%
- Bryce Lance WR · NO 4%
Usually taken just after
- Max Klare TE · LAR 5%
- Bryce Lance WR · NO 4%
- Riley Nowakowski TE · PIT 4%
- Seth McGowan RB · IND 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Sam Roush was selected in 7636 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.