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TE

NYG · Bye 8

Theo Johnson

LMD TE38 for Week 3 · 3.7 projected Half PPR points · TE34 rest of season

Regular season

Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 3.7 points this week, TE38. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 10% · Top 24: 22% of simulated weeks.

Week 3

TE38

210th by projected points

Rest of season

TE34

228th by projected points

Projected

3.7

week 3, Half PPR

Top 12

10%

Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 22% at TE

Movement

NEW

Not ranked at TE in Week 2

Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All TE rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

  • STATUS

    Theo Johnson is no longer listed on the injury report.

    Let's Mock Draft ·

Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 1 completed game Theo Johnson has averaged -0.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projection
Week by week for Theo Johnson, Half PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 vs DAL 2.2 1.4 -0.8
Wk 2 — — 0.0 —
Wk 3 vs TEN 3.7 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 60.0 points this season, TE34. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 11% of simulated seasons. That is 3.7 a game over 15 remaining games.

Per game

3.7 / game

Over 15 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 11%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE

Market input

none

No market signal available.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Theo Johnson #157 in 1QB and #157 in Superflex, TE19 at his position. Age 25.

1QB

#157

TE19 · tier 35 · of 297

Superflex

#157

TE19 · tier 29 · of 303

  • Last season 105.3 pts 7.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 79% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Touches 4.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 15% of his team's targets.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty TE rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

15.04

pick 171.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

15.05

half of simulations take him by pick 173

Draft range

14.06 - 15.11

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 2,603 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams also published: 14 teams
Scoring Half PPR also published: Full PPR
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Redraft also published: Dynasty

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 15.05 in 88% of simulations

Pick 173 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

The middle half of simulations take him between 15.01 and 15.09.

Theo Johnson still on the board
PickAvailable
15.03 91%
15.04 90%
15.05 88%
15.06 87%
15.07 85%
15.08 83%
15.09 81%
15.10 79%
15.11 78%
15.12 76%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Theo Johnson was selected at each pick, 14.06 through 15.11. He goes earlier than this window in 2%, later in 2%, undrafted in 74%.
Draft position distribution for Theo Johnson
PickShare of simulationsCount
14.06<1%35 of 10000 simulations
14.07<1%48 of 10000 simulations
14.08<1%38 of 10000 simulations
14.09<1%60 of 10000 simulations
14.10<1%49 of 10000 simulations
14.11<1%51 of 10000 simulations
14.12<1%54 of 10000 simulations
15.012%151 of 10000 simulations
15.022%153 of 10000 simulations
15.032%155 of 10000 simulations
15.041%135 of 10000 simulations
15.051%147 of 10000 simulations
15.062%187 of 10000 simulations
15.072%160 of 10000 simulations
15.082%201 of 10000 simulations
15.092%189 of 10000 simulations
15.102%163 of 10000 simulations
15.112%198 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 2603 simulations in which Theo Johnson was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Theo Johnson was selected in 2603 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
September 17, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Half PPR 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.