JAX · Bye 7 · Rookie
Nate Boerkircher
LMD TE86 for Week 4 · 1.6 projected Half PPR points
Questionable
In season
Week 4 fantasy ranking
We project 1.6 points this week, TE86. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 7% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 1 since Week 3.
Week 4
TE86
381st by projected points
Projected
1.6
week 4, Half PPR
Top 12
1%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 7% at TE
Movement
↓ 1
TE85 in Week 3, TE86 now
Should you start Nate Boerkircher in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Nate Boerkircher TE86 for Week 4, outside the TE12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside TE12 in 1% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.09 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.04 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.07 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.01 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Nate Boerkircher has averaged -1.5 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | — | — | 1.4 | — |
| Wk 3 | vs NE | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 |
| Wk 4 | @ CIN | 1.6 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Nate Boerkircher #199 in 1QB and #202 in Superflex, TE27 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 24.
1QB
#199
TE27 · tier 44 · of 297 · rookie 26 of 52
Superflex
#202
TE27 · tier 37 · of 303 · rookie 27 of 52
- Draft capital Round 2, pick 56 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty TE rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.10
pick 177.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.10
half of simulations take him by pick 178
Draft range
15.08 - 15.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 1,195 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.10 in 95% of simulations
Pick 178 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.09 and 15.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.08 | >99% |
| 15.09 | 98% |
| 15.10 | 95% |
| 15.11 | 93% |
| 15.12 | 91% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.03 | <1% | 2 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | <1% | 5 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | <1% | 2 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | <1% | 3 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | <1% | 3 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 220 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 3% | 266 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 219 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 210 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 3% | 254 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 1195 simulations in which Nate Boerkircher was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 4%
- Kimani Vidal RB · LAC 4%
- Eli Stowers TE · PHI 3%
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 3%
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 2%
- Eli Stowers TE · PHI 2%
- Ollie Gordon II RB · MIA 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Nate Boerkircher was selected in 1195 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.