TB · Bye 10
Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield comes off the board at 12.08 on average in 12-team Standard 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 12.04.
12-team Standard 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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Buccaneers’ Todd Bowles Throws Subtle Shot at Baker Mayfield
yardbarker.com ·
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Lessons from Week 2: Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield, Week 1 Browns, defense in our 4 Downs
Yahoo Sports ·
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Kyler Murray's Injury Status for Vikings vs. Baker Mayfield, Bucs Revealed After Concussion Recovery
Bleacher Report ·
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Baker Mayfield isn't playing like a $55 million quarterback with Buccaneers off to 0-2 start
houstonchronicle.com ·
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Baker Mayfield outplayed by Deshaun Watson as Buccaneers fall to Browns in revenge matchup
infonews.ca ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Baker Mayfield by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Baker Mayfield has averaged -1.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ CIN | 13.6 | 11.6 | -2.0 |
| Wk 2 | vs CLE | 13.8 | 12.2 | -1.6 |
| Wk 3 | vs MIN | 15.8 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB18. No board we publish ranks him now, so there is nothing to measure that price against.
Preseason market: QB18 · ADP 139.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB18 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Baker Mayfield #50 in 1QB and #26 in Superflex, QB11 at his position. Age 31.
1QB
#50
QB11 · tier 15 · of 297
Superflex
#26
QB11 · tier 7 · of 303
- Last season 271.9 pts 16.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 32.7 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.08
pick 140.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.04
half of simulations take him by pick 136
Draft range
11.01 - 15.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,058 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.04 in 56% of simulations
Pick 136 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 9, the same seat picks again at 13.09, where he is available in 30% of simulations.
Slot 9's remaining turns: 12.04 56% · 13.09 30% · 14.04 29% · 15.09 13%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.08 and 12.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.02 | 62% |
| 12.03 | 59% |
| 12.04 | 56% |
| 12.05 | 53% |
| 12.06 | 50% |
| 12.07 | 47% |
| 12.08 | 44% |
| 12.09 | 42% |
| 12.10 | 39% |
| 12.11 | 36% |
| 12.12 | 34% |
| 13.01 | 31% |
| 13.02 | 31% |
| 13.03 | 31% |
| 13.04 | 31% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 11.01-11.03 | 5% | 496 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.06 | 6% | 569 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.09 | 8% | 762 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.12 | 8% | 810 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.03 | 8% | 832 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.06 | 9% | 936 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.09 | 8% | 828 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.12 | 8% | 770 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.03 | <1% | 20 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.06 | <1% | 24 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.09 | <1% | 29 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.12 | <1% | 41 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.03 | 1% | 117 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.06 | 1% | 120 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.09 | 1% | 124 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.12 | 2% | 160 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.03 | 5% | 456 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 3% | 268 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9058 simulations in which Baker Mayfield was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Fernando Mendoza QB · LV 2%
- Tyler Shough QB · NO 2%
- Kenyon Sadiq TE · NYJ 2%
- Rachaad White RB · WAS 2%
Usually taken just after
- Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 2%
- Woody Marks RB · HOU 2%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
- Brenton Strange TE · JAX 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Baker Mayfield was selected in 9058 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.