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Bryce Young

LMD QB Tier 3 for Week 9 · 15.3 projected Standard points

In season

Week 9 fantasy ranking

We project 15.3 points this week, QB Tier 3. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 5.8 - 26.5 points. Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 41% · Top 24: 82% of simulated weeks.

Week 9

QB Tier 3

15.3 - 16.4 projected points

Projected

15.3

week 9, Standard

Top 12

41%

Top 3: 9% · Top 24: 82% at QB

Movement

↓ 9

QB9 in Week 8, QB18 now

Should you start Bryce Young in Week 9?

Borderline

It is close. LMD ranks Bryce Young QB18 for Week 9, just outside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 41% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All QB rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Bryce Young by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 7 completed games Bryce Young has averaged +2.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Bryce Young, Standard scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 vs CHI 12.2 31.4 +19.2
Wk 2 @ ATL 14.8 24.1 +9.3
Wk 3 @ CLE 17.7 13.6 -4.1
Wk 4 vs DET 17.3 21.5 +4.2
Wk 6 @ PHI 16.8 19.8 +3.0
Wk 7 vs TB 17.0 5.4 -11.6
Wk 8 @ GB 16.1 10.4 -5.7
Wk 9 vs DEN 15.3 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Bryce Young #77 in 1QB and #51 in Superflex, QB18 at his position. Age 25.

1QB

#77

QB18 · tier 19 · of 300

Superflex

#51

QB18 · tier 11 · of 307

  • Last season 218.0 pts 13.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 91% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Attempts 29.8 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty QB rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

15.06

pick 173.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

15.06

half of simulations take him by pick 174

Draft range

15.01 - 15.11

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 1,935 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams
Scoring Standard also published: Half PPR
QB format 1QB
Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 15.06 in 92% of simulations

Pick 174 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

The middle half of simulations take him between 15.03 and 15.09.

Bryce Young still on the board
PickAvailable
15.04 95%
15.05 93%
15.06 92%
15.07 90%
15.08 89%
15.09 87%
15.10 85%
15.11 84%
15.12 82%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Bryce Young was selected at each pick, 15.01 through 15.11. He goes earlier than this window in 2%, later in 1%, undrafted in 81%.
Draft position distribution for Bryce Young
PickShare of simulationsCount
15.01<1%79 of 10000 simulations
15.021%119 of 10000 simulations
15.032%156 of 10000 simulations
15.042%160 of 10000 simulations
15.052%169 of 10000 simulations
15.062%150 of 10000 simulations
15.072%158 of 10000 simulations
15.082%166 of 10000 simulations
15.091%143 of 10000 simulations
15.102%155 of 10000 simulations
15.112%179 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 1935 simulations in which Bryce Young was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Bryce Young was selected in 1935 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
November 5, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Standard 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.