CIN · Bye 6
Joe Burrow
LMD QB Tier 1 for Week 9 · 20.1 projected Standard points
In season
Week 9 fantasy ranking
We project 20.1 points this week, QB Tier 1. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 7.7 - 33.4 points. Top 3: 21% · Top 12: 62% · Top 24: 90% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
QB Tier 1
19.0 - 20.1 projected points
Projected
20.1
week 9, Standard
Top 12
62%
Top 3: 21% · Top 24: 90% at QB
Movement
↑ 1
QB2 in Week 8, QB1 now
Should you start Joe Burrow in Week 9?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Joe Burrow QB1 for Week 9, inside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 62% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.27 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+1.48 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-1.05 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.07 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.38 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
What Joe Burrow said about Real Madrid, fashion
cincinnati.com ·
-
Reflective Joe Burrow ready to put on a ‘show’ in Madrid vs. Falcons
cincinnati.com ·
-
'Going To Put On A Show' - Joe Burrow Hammers Home Love For International Games Ahead of Falcons Madrid Battle
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Joe Burrow lays out bold expectations ahead of an experience he’s wanted for a long time
yardbarker.com ·
-
Joe Burrow leads surging Bengals against Falcons in Madrid
247sports.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Joe Burrow by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Joe Burrow has averaged +6.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs TB | 18.0 | 14.2 | -3.8 |
| Wk 2 | @ HOU | 18.0 | 16.2 | -1.8 |
| Wk 3 | @ PIT | 15.7 | 22.6 | +6.9 |
| Wk 4 | vs JAX | 16.6 | 23.7 | +7.1 |
| Wk 5 | @ MIA | 16.6 | 24.6 | +8.0 |
| Wk 7 | @ BAL | 17.0 | 28.9 | +11.9 |
| Wk 8 | vs TEN | 19.6 | 39.5 | +19.9 |
| Wk 9 | @ ATL | 20.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB4. This week LMD has him 3 spots higher, at QB1.
Preseason market: QB4 · ADP 55.0
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 9
QB1 +3
LMD has him 3 spots higher than his QB4 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB4 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Joe Burrow #130 in 1QB and #117 in Superflex, QB27 at his position. Age 29.
1QB
#130
QB27 · tier 29 · of 300
Superflex
#117
QB27 · tier 20 · of 307
- Last season 134.5 pts 16.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 65% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 35.0 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
5.07
pick 55.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
5.08
half of simulations take him by pick 56
Draft range
4.09 - 6.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 5.08 in 51% of simulations
Pick 56 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 6.05, where he is available in 12% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 5.08 51% · 6.05 12% · 7.08 <1% · 8.05 <1% · 9.08 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 5.02 and 6.01.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 5.06 | 62% |
| 5.07 | 57% |
| 5.08 | 51% |
| 5.09 | 46% |
| 5.10 | 41% |
| 5.11 | 36% |
| 5.12 | 31% |
| 6.01 | 27% |
| 6.02 | 23% |
| 6.03 | 19% |
| 6.04 | 15% |
| 6.05 | 12% |
| 6.06 | 9% |
| 6.07 | 7% |
| 6.08 | 5% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 4.09 | 2% | 210 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 2% | 233 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11 | 3% | 273 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.12 | 3% | 278 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.01 | 3% | 259 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.02 | 4% | 352 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03 | 4% | 372 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.04 | 4% | 419 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05 | 5% | 483 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06 | 5% | 524 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07 | 5% | 504 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08 | 5% | 502 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09 | 5% | 523 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10 | 5% | 507 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11 | 5% | 480 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.12 | 4% | 431 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.01 | 5% | 453 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.02 | 4% | 390 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.03 | 4% | 362 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.04 | 3% | 329 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05 | 3% | 277 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Joe Burrow was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 4%
- David Montgomery RB · HOU 4%
- DJ Moore WR · BUF 4%
- Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX 4%
Usually taken just after
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 4%
- David Montgomery RB · HOU 4%
- Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX 4%
- Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Joe Burrow was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.