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IND · Bye 13

Daniel Jones

LMD QB Tier 5 for Week 9 · 12.5 projected Standard points

In season

Week 9 fantasy ranking

We project 12.5 points this week, QB Tier 5. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 4.5 - 21.9 points. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 27% · Top 24: 73% of simulated weeks.

Week 9

QB Tier 5

12.1 - 12.5 projected points

Projected

12.5

week 9, Standard

Top 12

27%

Top 3: 4% · Top 24: 73% at QB

Movement

↑ 2

QB27 in Week 8, QB25 now

Should you start Daniel Jones in Week 9?

Bench

Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Daniel Jones QB25 for Week 9, outside the QB12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside QB12 in 27% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All QB rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Daniel Jones by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 8 completed games Daniel Jones has averaged -3.5 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Daniel Jones, Standard scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 vs BAL 12.7 9.0 -3.7
Wk 2 @ KC 11.1 11.4 +0.3
Wk 3 vs HOU 13.3 7.9 -5.4
Wk 4 @ WAS 14.5 7.9 -6.6
Wk 5 @ PIT 13.2 11.1 -2.1
Wk 6 vs TEN 13.7 13.8 +0.1
Wk 7 @ MIN 10.4 3.6 -6.8
Wk 8 @ JAX 10.4 6.5 -3.9
Wk 9 vs DAL 12.5 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Daniel Jones #126 in 1QB and #108 in Superflex, QB26 at his position. Age 29.

1QB

#126

QB26 · tier 28 · of 300

Superflex

#108

QB26 · tier 19 · of 307

  • Last season 226.4 pts 17.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 63% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Attempts 30.3 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty QB rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

15.10

pick 177.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

15.11

half of simulations take him by pick 179

Draft range

15.08 - 15.12

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 470 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams
Scoring Standard
QB format 1QB
Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 15.11 in 98% of simulations

Pick 179 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

The middle half of simulations take him between 15.09 and 15.12.

Daniel Jones still on the board
PickAvailable
15.09 >99%
15.10 99%
15.11 98%
15.12 97%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Daniel Jones was selected at each pick, 15.03 through 15.12. He goes earlier than this window in <1%, undrafted in 95%.
Draft position distribution for Daniel Jones
PickShare of simulationsCount
15.03<1%1 of 10000 simulations
15.04<1%5 of 10000 simulations
15.05<1%4 of 10000 simulations
15.06<1%2 of 10000 simulations
15.07<1%19 of 10000 simulations
15.08<1%12 of 10000 simulations
15.09<1%66 of 10000 simulations
15.10<1%80 of 10000 simulations
15.111%122 of 10000 simulations
15.121%145 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 470 simulations in which Daniel Jones was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Daniel Jones was selected in 470 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
November 5, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Standard 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.