GB · Bye 11
Jordan Love
LMD QB Tier 3 for Week 9 · 16.3 projected Standard points
In season
Week 9 fantasy ranking
We project 16.3 points this week, QB Tier 3. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 6.5 - 27.9 points. Top 3: 11% · Top 12: 46% · Top 24: 86% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
QB Tier 3
15.3 - 16.4 projected points
Projected
16.3
week 9, Standard
Top 12
46%
Top 3: 11% · Top 24: 86% at QB
Movement
↓ 2
QB8 in Week 8, QB10 now
Should you start Jordan Love in Week 9?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Jordan Love QB10 for Week 9, inside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 46% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.07 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.59 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.86 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.05 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-0.64 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Patriots Star Sends Very Clear Warning to Packers, Jordan Love
yardbarker.com ·
-
Breaking Down Jordan Love vs. Drake Maye As Two Top Downfield Passers Face Off
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Jordan Love, Drake Maye represent new era in Packers-Patriots matchup
newsday.com ·
-
Packers lead NFL in drops and have a historically bad run game, but Jordan Love keeps saving the day
bostonglobe.com ·
-
Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love takes home weekly award for 2nd time this season
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jordan Love by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 8 completed games Jordan Love has averaged +3.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ MIN | 12.5 | 19.5 | +7.0 |
| Wk 2 | @ NYJ | 14.6 | 13.8 | -0.8 |
| Wk 3 | vs ATL | 16.3 | 18.5 | +2.2 |
| Wk 4 | @ TB | 15.1 | 13.1 | -2.0 |
| Wk 5 | vs CHI | 15.1 | 25.3 | +10.2 |
| Wk 6 | vs DAL | 17.4 | 20.2 | +2.8 |
| Wk 7 | @ DET | 17.5 | 17.0 | -0.5 |
| Wk 8 | vs CAR | 16.4 | 21.5 | +5.1 |
| Wk 9 | @ NE | 16.3 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB20. This week LMD has him 10 spots higher, at QB10.
Preseason market: QB20 · ADP 144.3
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 9
QB10 +10
LMD has him 10 spots higher than his QB20 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB20 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jordan Love #64 in 1QB and #38 in Superflex, QB16 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#64
QB16 · tier 17 · of 300
Superflex
#38
QB16 · tier 9 · of 307
- Last season 235.1 pts 15.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 91% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 29.9 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.01
pick 109.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
9.11
half of simulations take him by pick 107
Draft range
8.06 - 11.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,985 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 9.11 in 51% of simulations
Pick 107 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 10.02, where he is available in 44% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 9.11 51% · 10.02 44% · 11.11 9% · 12.02 7% · 13.11 1% · 14.02 1% · 15.11 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 8.12 and 10.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.09 | 56% |
| 9.10 | 54% |
| 9.11 | 51% |
| 9.12 | 49% |
| 10.01 | 47% |
| 10.02 | 44% |
| 10.03 | 42% |
| 10.04 | 40% |
| 10.05 | 38% |
| 10.06 | 36% |
| 10.07 | 34% |
| 10.08 | 32% |
| 10.09 | 30% |
| 10.10 | 28% |
| 10.11 | 27% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.06-8.07 | 4% | 403 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 5% | 462 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 5% | 472 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 5% | 498 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 5% | 486 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 5% | 471 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 472 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 5% | 487 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 5% | 460 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 4% | 445 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 4% | 410 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 4% | 415 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 4% | 420 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 4% | 369 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 4% | 366 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 3% | 340 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 3% | 314 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 3% | 259 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 3% | 271 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 2% | 229 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10 | 1% | 120 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9985 simulations in which Jordan Love was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 2%
- Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 2%
- Justin Herbert QB · LAC 2%
- Jaxson Dart QB · NYG 2%
Usually taken just after
- Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 3%
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 2%
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 2%
- Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jordan Love was selected in 9985 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.