LAC · Bye 7
Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert comes off the board at 8.11 on average in 12-team Standard 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 8.11.
12-team Standard 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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‘I don’t understand’ – Bill Simmons calls out LA Chargers fans who won’t criticise Justin Herbert after Raiders loss
yardbarker.com ·
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Michael Irvin trolls Justin Herbert over Madison Beer relationship after another stunning Chargers loss
nypost.com ·
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"I think I found the problem!": Sports doctor points finger at Chargers OC Mike McDaniel after Justin Herbert and team go 0-2 to Cardinals and Raiders
sportskeeda.com ·
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The young Raiders’ defense gave Justin Herbert and his fans a reality check
yardbarker.com ·
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Raiders Rookie Calls Out Justin Herbert After Multiple Interception Game
newsweek.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Justin Herbert by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Justin Herbert has averaged -5.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs ARI | 16.4 | 13.3 | -3.1 |
| Wk 2 | vs LV | 16.0 | 7.9 | -8.1 |
| Wk 3 | @ BUF | 14.9 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB14. No board we publish ranks him now, so there is nothing to measure that price against.
Preseason market: QB14 · ADP 110.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB14 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Justin Herbert #36 in 1QB and #21 in Superflex, QB9 at his position. Age 28.
1QB
#36
QB9 · tier 12 · of 297
Superflex
#21
QB9 · tier 6 · of 303
- Last season 286.9 pts 17.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 31.9 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.11
pick 95.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.11
half of simulations take him by pick 95
Draft range
7.05 - 10.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.11 in 51% of simulations
Pick 95 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 9.02, where he is available in 42% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 8.11 51% · 9.02 42% · 10.11 5% · 11.02 3% · 12.11 <1% · 13.02 <1% · 14.11 <1% · 15.02 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 8.02 and 9.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 8.09 | 56% |
| 8.10 | 54% |
| 8.11 | 51% |
| 8.12 | 48% |
| 9.01 | 45% |
| 9.02 | 42% |
| 9.03 | 40% |
| 9.04 | 37% |
| 9.05 | 34% |
| 9.06 | 32% |
| 9.07 | 30% |
| 9.08 | 27% |
| 9.09 | 25% |
| 9.10 | 23% |
| 9.11 | 21% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 7.05-7.06 | 3% | 264 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07-7.08 | 3% | 304 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09-7.10 | 4% | 386 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 4% | 416 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 4% | 434 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 6% | 583 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 6% | 611 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 6% | 556 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 6% | 600 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 5% | 487 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 5% | 543 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 5% | 477 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 5% | 463 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 4% | 416 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 4% | 384 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 3% | 304 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 3% | 274 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05 | 1% | 136 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Justin Herbert was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 3%
- Jared Goff QB · DET 2%
- Brock Purdy QB · SF 2%
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · WAS 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brock Purdy QB · SF 3%
- Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 2%
- Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 2%
- Matthew Stafford QB · LAR 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Justin Herbert was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.