LAC · Bye 7
Justin Herbert
LMD QB Tier 5 for Week 9 · 12.1 projected Standard points
In season
Week 9 fantasy ranking
We project 12.1 points this week, QB Tier 5. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 4.9 - 21.0 points. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 24% · Top 24: 73% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
QB Tier 5
12.1 - 12.5 projected points
Projected
12.1
week 9, Standard
Top 12
24%
Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 73% at QB
Movement
↓ 3
QB23 in Week 8, QB26 now
Should you start Justin Herbert in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Justin Herbert QB26 for Week 9, outside the QB12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside QB12 in 24% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
QB26 vs QB16 -10
LMD has him QB26. The fantasy draft market has him QB16, 10 places higher.
Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.01 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.80 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.63 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.03 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.45 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Texans defender has unexpected take on Chargers QB Justin Herbert
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Rams' Quentin Lake texted apology to Chargers Justin Herbert for ham-handed 'deli meat' comment
arcamax.com ·
-
Chargers OC Mike McDaniel Responds to Trash Talk Against QB Justin Herbert
newsweek.com ·
-
Will Anderson Jr Delivers Head-Scratching Take on Chargers QB Justin Herbert
newsweek.com ·
-
When your peers are laughing at you: How Justin Herbert blocks out the noise
cleveland.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Justin Herbert by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Justin Herbert has averaged -4.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs ARI | 16.4 | 13.3 | -3.1 |
| Wk 2 | vs LV | 16.0 | 7.9 | -8.1 |
| Wk 3 | @ BUF | 14.5 | 12.7 | -1.8 |
| Wk 4 | @ SEA | 12.0 | 9.6 | -2.4 |
| Wk 5 | vs DEN | 14.0 | 10.2 | -3.8 |
| Wk 6 | @ KC | 12.2 | 8.8 | -3.4 |
| Wk 8 | @ LAR | 13.2 | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| Wk 9 | vs HOU | 12.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB14. This week LMD has him 12 spots lower, at QB26.
Preseason market: QB14 · ADP 110.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 9
QB26 −12
LMD has him 12 spots lower than his QB14 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB14 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Justin Herbert #36 in 1QB and #21 in Superflex, QB9 at his position. Age 28.
1QB
#36
QB9 · tier 12 · of 300
Superflex
#21
QB9 · tier 6 · of 307
- Last season 286.9 pts 17.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 31.9 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.11
pick 95.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.11
half of simulations take him by pick 95
Draft range
7.06 - 10.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.11 in 51% of simulations
Pick 95 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 9.02, where he is available in 42% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 8.11 51% · 9.02 42% · 10.11 5% · 11.02 3% · 12.11 <1% · 13.02 <1% · 14.11 <1% · 15.02 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 8.02 and 9.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 8.09 | 56% |
| 8.10 | 54% |
| 8.11 | 51% |
| 8.12 | 48% |
| 9.01 | 45% |
| 9.02 | 42% |
| 9.03 | 40% |
| 9.04 | 37% |
| 9.05 | 34% |
| 9.06 | 32% |
| 9.07 | 30% |
| 9.08 | 27% |
| 9.09 | 25% |
| 9.10 | 23% |
| 9.11 | 21% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 7.06-7.07 | 3% | 283 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08-7.09 | 3% | 346 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10-7.11 | 4% | 397 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.12-8.01 | 4% | 432 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 5% | 455 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 5% | 525 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 6% | 621 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 6% | 575 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 6% | 585 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 5% | 539 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 5% | 535 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 5% | 514 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 469 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 4% | 413 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 4% | 410 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 3% | 349 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 3% | 308 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 3% | 254 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Justin Herbert was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 3%
- Jared Goff QB · DET 2%
- Brock Purdy QB · SF 2%
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brock Purdy QB · SF 3%
- Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 2%
- Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 2%
- Matthew Stafford QB · LAR 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Justin Herbert was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.