CLE · Bye 11
Shedeur Sanders
Shedeur Sanders comes off the board at 15.02 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty mock drafts, with a median of 15.03.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty · 10,000 simulations · generated November 5, 2026
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Shedeur Sanders has averaged -14.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ JAX | 5.1 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | @ TB | 8.6 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | vs CAR | 14.2 | 0.0 | -14.2 |
| Wk 8 | — | — | 0.1 | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Shedeur Sanders #183 in 1QB and #167 in Superflex, QB35 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#183
QB35 · tier 41 · of 300
Superflex
#167
QB35 · tier 31 · of 307
- Last season 84.9 pts 10.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 47% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 26.5 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.02
pick 170.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.03
half of simulations take him by pick 171
Draft range
14.06 - 15.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 3,402 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Shedeur Sanders.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.03 in 83% of simulations
Pick 171 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.09 and 15.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.01 | 86% |
| 15.02 | 85% |
| 15.03 | 83% |
| 15.04 | 81% |
| 15.05 | 80% |
| 15.06 | 78% |
| 15.07 | 76% |
| 15.08 | 74% |
| 15.09 | 72% |
| 15.10 | 71% |
| 15.11 | 69% |
| 15.12 | 68% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.06 | 2% | 164 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | 2% | 165 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | 1% | 133 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | 2% | 154 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | 2% | 152 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | 2% | 157 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | 2% | 172 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 2% | 159 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 2% | 167 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 2% | 167 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 163 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 205 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 166 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 204 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 174 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 152 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 154 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 3402 simulations in which Shedeur Sanders was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Kimani Vidal RB · LAC 3%
- Ollie Gordon II RB · MIA 3%
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 3%
- Chris Brazzell II WR · CAR 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brashard Smith RB · KC 3%
- Kimani Vidal RB · LAC 2%
- Mac Jones QB · SF 2%
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Shedeur Sanders was selected in 3402 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.