SF · Bye 8
Brock Purdy
LMD QB Tier 1 for Week 9 · 19.6 projected Standard points
In season
Week 9 fantasy ranking
We project 19.6 points this week, QB Tier 1. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 7.5 - 33.4 points. Top 3: 21% · Top 12: 60% · Top 24: 89% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
QB Tier 1
19.0 - 20.1 projected points
Projected
19.6
week 9, Standard
Top 12
60%
Top 3: 21% · Top 24: 89% at QB
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at QB in Week 8
Should you start Brock Purdy in Week 9?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Brock Purdy QB2 for Week 9, inside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 60% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.04 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.39 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-1.02 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.46 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+1.28 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
49ers’ Brock Purdy gets candid about possible Brandon Aiyuk reunion
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Tom Brady explains why Brock Purdy deserves MVP consideration as 49ers impress
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Why 49ers QB Brock Purdy is Kevin Durant's 2026 NFL MVP pick entering Week 8
nbcbayarea.com ·
-
49ers' John Lynch details what makes Brock Purdy an elite QB
yardbarker.com ·
-
Brock Purdy for MVP? His case may depend on this ‘most valuable to Purdy' 49ers player
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Brock Purdy by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Brock Purdy has averaged +3.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LAR | 14.2 | 21.1 | +6.9 |
| Wk 2 | vs MIA | 17.7 | 28.5 | +10.8 |
| Wk 3 | vs ARI | 16.7 | 31.3 | +14.6 |
| Wk 4 | vs DEN | 16.9 | 19.6 | +2.7 |
| Wk 5 | @ SEA | 16.7 | 16.2 | -0.5 |
| Wk 6 | vs WAS | 19.2 | 17.4 | -1.8 |
| Wk 7 | @ ATL | 17.5 | 12.0 | -5.5 |
| Wk 9 | vs LV | 19.6 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Brock Purdy #82 in 1QB and #56 in Superflex, QB20 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#82
QB20 · tier 20 · of 300
Superflex
#56
QB20 · tier 11 · of 307
- Last season 177.4 pts 19.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 72% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 30.4 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.09
pick 92.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.08
half of simulations take him by pick 92
Draft range
7.03 - 10.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.08 in 51% of simulations
Pick 92 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 9.05, where he is available in 27% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 8.08 51% · 9.05 27% · 10.08 5% · 11.05 1% · 12.08 <1% · 13.05 <1% · 14.08 <1% · 15.05 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.10 and 9.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 8.06 | 57% |
| 8.07 | 54% |
| 8.08 | 51% |
| 8.09 | 48% |
| 8.10 | 45% |
| 8.11 | 42% |
| 8.12 | 39% |
| 9.01 | 37% |
| 9.02 | 34% |
| 9.03 | 32% |
| 9.04 | 30% |
| 9.05 | 27% |
| 9.06 | 25% |
| 9.07 | 23% |
| 9.08 | 21% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 7.03-7.04 | 4% | 354 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.05-7.06 | 4% | 369 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07-7.08 | 4% | 433 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09-7.10 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 5% | 476 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 5% | 515 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 6% | 555 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 6% | 570 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 6% | 576 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 6% | 576 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 5% | 527 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 5% | 454 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 5% | 482 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 4% | 435 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 4% | 377 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 3% | 342 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 3% | 285 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 2% | 243 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03 | 1% | 118 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Brock Purdy was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Justin Herbert QB · LAC 3%
- Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 2%
- Matthew Stafford QB · LAR 2%
- Dak Prescott QB · DAL 2%
Usually taken just after
- Sam LaPorta TE · DET 3%
- Matthew Stafford QB · LAR 2%
- Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 2%
- Justin Herbert QB · LAC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Brock Purdy was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.