SF · Bye 8
Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy comes off the board at 8.09 on average in 12-team Standard 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 8.08.
12-team Standard 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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49ers’ Christian McCaffrey tired of same Brock Purdy question every season
nypost.com ·
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NFC West Check-In: 49ers are 2-0 with ‘almost flawless’ Brock Purdy at QB
sports.mynorthwest.com ·
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Brock Purdy and the 49ers' offense are off to an efficient start
ctinsider.com ·
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Brock Purdy nearly perfect as 49ers thrash Dolphins in historically dominant start
nypost.com ·
-
NFL punishes Rams player for Brock Purdy incident ahead of Giants game
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Brock Purdy by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Brock Purdy has averaged +8.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LAR | 14.2 | 21.1 | +6.9 |
| Wk 2 | vs MIA | 17.7 | 28.5 | +10.8 |
| Wk 3 | vs ARI | 18.0 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Brock Purdy #82 in 1QB and #56 in Superflex, QB20 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#82
QB20 · tier 20 · of 297
Superflex
#56
QB20 · tier 11 · of 303
- Last season 177.4 pts 19.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 72% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 30.4 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.09
pick 92.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.08
half of simulations take him by pick 92
Draft range
7.03 - 10.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.08 in 51% of simulations
Pick 92 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 9.05, where he is available in 27% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 8.08 51% · 9.05 27% · 10.08 5% · 11.05 1% · 12.08 <1% · 13.05 <1% · 14.08 <1% · 15.05 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.10 and 9.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 8.06 | 56% |
| 8.07 | 54% |
| 8.08 | 51% |
| 8.09 | 48% |
| 8.10 | 45% |
| 8.11 | 42% |
| 8.12 | 39% |
| 9.01 | 37% |
| 9.02 | 34% |
| 9.03 | 32% |
| 9.04 | 30% |
| 9.05 | 27% |
| 9.06 | 25% |
| 9.07 | 23% |
| 9.08 | 21% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 7.03-7.04 | 4% | 351 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.05-7.06 | 4% | 372 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07-7.08 | 4% | 435 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09-7.10 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 5% | 478 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 5% | 512 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 6% | 552 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 6% | 576 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 6% | 576 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 6% | 581 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 5% | 525 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 5% | 452 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 5% | 484 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 4% | 434 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 4% | 369 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 3% | 343 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 3% | 282 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 2% | 247 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03 | 1% | 116 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Brock Purdy was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Justin Herbert QB · LAC 3%
- Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 2%
- Matthew Stafford QB · LAR 2%
- Dak Prescott QB · DAL 2%
Usually taken just after
- Sam LaPorta TE · DET 3%
- Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 2%
- Matthew Stafford QB · LAR 2%
- Justin Herbert QB · LAC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Brock Purdy was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.