KC · Bye 5
Patrick Mahomes
LMD QB Tier 2 for Week 9 · 18.1 projected Standard points
In season
Week 9 fantasy ranking
We project 18.1 points this week, QB Tier 2. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 6.8 - 30.7 points. Top 3: 16% · Top 12: 54% · Top 24: 87% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
QB Tier 2
17.3 - 18.1 projected points
Projected
18.1
week 9, Standard
Top 12
54%
Top 3: 16% · Top 24: 87% at QB
Movement
↑ 14
QB18 in Week 8, QB4 now
Should you start Patrick Mahomes in Week 9?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Patrick Mahomes QB4 for Week 9, inside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 54% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
QB4 vs QB10 +6
LMD has him QB4. The fantasy draft market has him QB10, 6 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.03 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.41 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.94 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.15 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+1.44 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
“I’m going to do whatever it takes to win": Patrick Mahomes willing to put his body on the line as Chiefs’ losing streak sparks desperate move
timesofindia.indiatimes.com ·
-
Travis Kelce disagrees with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes as Chiefs' controversial Jaylon Moore penalty sparks debate
timesofindia.indiatimes.com ·
-
Patrick Mahomes gets new receiver Bub Means for the Chiefs but can he deliver what Tyreek Hill once did?
bundle.app ·
-
Patrick Mahomes showed again why he’s a great teammate after Emmett Johnson’s TD
kansascity.com ·
-
‘Been cheating’- Chiefs fans face fiery response over Patrick Mahomes and controversial call
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Patrick Mahomes by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Patrick Mahomes has averaged +2.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DEN | 13.5 | 21.7 | +8.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs IND | 16.8 | 29.0 | +12.2 |
| Wk 3 | @ MIA | 17.9 | 15.9 | -2.0 |
| Wk 4 | @ LV | 16.8 | 17.0 | +0.2 |
| Wk 6 | vs LAC | 16.4 | 10.5 | -5.9 |
| Wk 7 | @ SEA | 15.2 | 6.0 | -9.2 |
| Wk 8 | @ DEN | 14.4 | 25.4 | +11.0 |
| Wk 9 | vs NYJ | 18.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB13. This week LMD has him 9 spots higher, at QB4.
Preseason market: QB13 · ADP 109.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 9
QB4 +9
LMD has him 9 spots higher than his QB13 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB13 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Patrick Mahomes #48 in 1QB and #24 in Superflex, QB10 at his position. Age 30.
1QB
#48
QB10 · tier 14 · of 300
Superflex
#24
QB10 · tier 7 · of 307
- Last season 285.2 pts 20.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 88% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 36.3 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.03
pick 111.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.02
half of simulations take him by pick 110
Draft range
8.12 - 11.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.02 in 52% of simulations
Pick 110 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 11.11, where he is available in 6% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 10.02 52% · 11.11 6% · 12.02 4% · 13.11 <1% · 14.02 <1% · 15.11 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.06 and 10.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.12 | 58% |
| 10.01 | 55% |
| 10.02 | 52% |
| 10.03 | 50% |
| 10.04 | 47% |
| 10.05 | 44% |
| 10.06 | 41% |
| 10.07 | 38% |
| 10.08 | 35% |
| 10.09 | 32% |
| 10.10 | 29% |
| 10.11 | 26% |
| 10.12 | 24% |
| 11.01 | 22% |
| 11.02 | 20% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.12-9.01 | 4% | 352 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 4% | 351 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 6% | 573 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 7% | 692 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 7% | 662 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 6% | 607 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 6% | 582 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 5% | 521 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 6% | 592 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 6% | 578 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 6% | 586 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 5% | 515 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 5% | 453 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 4% | 354 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 3% | 324 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 3% | 266 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08 | 2% | 156 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Patrick Mahomes was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jordan Love QB · GB 3%
- Jaxson Dart QB · NYG 3%
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 3%
- Justin Herbert QB · LAC 2%
Usually taken just after
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 3%
- Jaxson Dart QB · NYG 2%
- Makai Lemon WR · PHI 2%
- George Kittle TE · SF 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Patrick Mahomes was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.