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QB

NYG · Bye 8

J.J. McCarthy

LMD QB Tier 4 for Week 9 · 14.4 projected Half PPR points

In season

Week 9 fantasy ranking

We project 14.4 points this week, QB Tier 4. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 4.4 - 26.3 points. Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 35% · Top 24: 76% of simulated weeks.

Week 9

QB Tier 4

13.4 - 14.4 projected points

Projected

14.4

week 9, Half PPR

Top 12

35%

Top 3: 9% · Top 24: 76% at QB

Movement

NEW

Not ranked at QB in Week 8

Should you start J.J. McCarthy in Week 9?

Bench

Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks J.J. McCarthy QB20 for Week 9, outside the QB12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside QB12 in 35% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

LMD vs the draft market

QB20 vs QB26 +6

LMD has him QB20. The fantasy draft market has him QB26, 6 places lower.

Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline and recent usage above his season baseline.

Half PPR scoring · Updated November 5, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All QB rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to J.J. McCarthy by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 1 completed game J.J. McCarthy has averaged +3.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for J.J. McCarthy, Half PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 vs GB 5.0 Pending —
Wk 2 @ CHI 8.3 Pending —
Wk 3 @ TB 15.1 Pending —
Wk 5 — — 0.2 —
Wk 6 — — 16.3 —
Wk 7 @ HOU 6.9 10.2 +3.3
Wk 9 @ PHI 14.4 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has J.J. McCarthy #201 in 1QB and #172 in Superflex, QB36 at his position. Age 23.

1QB

#201

QB36 · tier 44 · of 300

Superflex

#172

QB36 · tier 33 · of 307

  • Last season 125.4 pts 12.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 37% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 1 season Played in 1 of his 2 seasons in the window the model reads.
  • Attempts 15.2 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty QB rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

15.10

pick 178.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

15.11

half of simulations take him by pick 179

Draft range

15.09 - 15.12

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 480 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams
Scoring Half PPR
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Dynasty

Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for J.J. McCarthy.

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 15.11 in 98% of simulations

Pick 179 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

The middle half of simulations take him between 15.10 and 15.12.

J.J. McCarthy still on the board
PickAvailable
15.09 >99%
15.10 >99%
15.11 98%
15.12 96%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which J.J. McCarthy was selected at each pick, 15.03 through 15.12. He goes earlier than this window in <1%, undrafted in 95%.
Draft position distribution for J.J. McCarthy
PickShare of simulationsCount
15.03<1%2 of 10000 simulations
15.040%0 of 10000 simulations
15.05<1%5 of 10000 simulations
15.06<1%6 of 10000 simulations
15.07<1%5 of 10000 simulations
15.08<1%11 of 10000 simulations
15.09<1%9 of 10000 simulations
15.102%157 of 10000 simulations
15.111%142 of 10000 simulations
15.121%128 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 480 simulations in which J.J. McCarthy was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

J.J. McCarthy was selected in 480 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
November 5, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
Baseline
rank

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.