MIA · Bye 6
Malik Willis
LMD QB Tier 3 for Week 9 · 15.4 projected Standard points
In season
Week 9 fantasy ranking
We project 15.4 points this week, QB Tier 3. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 5.8 - 26.4 points. Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 42% · Top 24: 82% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
QB Tier 3
15.3 - 16.4 projected points
Projected
15.4
week 9, Standard
Top 12
42%
Top 3: 9% · Top 24: 82% at QB
Movement
↑ 7
QB22 in Week 8, QB15 now
Should you start Malik Willis in Week 9?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Malik Willis QB15 for Week 9, just outside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 42% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
QB15 vs QB24 +9
LMD has him QB15. The fantasy draft market has him QB24, 9 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.10 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.61 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.81 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.27 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+1.33 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
NFL 2026 Week 9 Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Stack Malik Willis and Caleb Douglas
NBC Sports ·
-
Chris Rodriguez, Malik Willis, And More Week 9 Fantasy Football Sleepers To Start
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Malik Willis fully practices Wednesday
USA TODAY ·
-
Week 9 Fantasy Football Quarterback Streamers: Malik Willis, Sam Darnold, And More
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Week 9 Fantasy Waiver Wire: Malik Willis, Jonah Coleman, Tyler Allgeier, Mike Washington Jr., Antonio Williams, Chig Okonkwo and MORE
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Malik Willis by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Malik Willis has averaged +2.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LV | 12.5 | 16.7 | +4.2 |
| Wk 2 | @ SF | 11.3 | 12.5 | +1.2 |
| Wk 3 | vs KC | 14.3 | 10.0 | -4.3 |
| Wk 4 | @ MIN | 12.0 | 2.5 | -9.5 |
| Wk 5 | vs CIN | 12.1 | 18.9 | +6.8 |
| Wk 7 | @ NYJ | 11.9 | 26.0 | +14.1 |
| Wk 8 | vs NE | 13.1 | 14.6 | +1.5 |
| Wk 9 | vs DET | 15.4 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Malik Willis #269 in Superflex. Age 27.
1QB
--
Not ranked on this board
Superflex
#269
QB47 · tier 55 · of 307
- Last season 51.2 pts 12.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 25% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 7.6 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.02
pick 170 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.04
half of simulations take him by pick 172
Draft range
14.02 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 2,946 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.04 in 87% of simulations
Pick 172 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.11 and 15.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.02 | 90% |
| 15.03 | 89% |
| 15.04 | 87% |
| 15.05 | 85% |
| 15.06 | 83% |
| 15.07 | 82% |
| 15.08 | 79% |
| 15.09 | 77% |
| 15.10 | 76% |
| 15.11 | 74% |
| 15.12 | 72% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.02 | <1% | 43 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03 | <1% | 31 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04 | <1% | 42 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05 | <1% | 40 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06 | <1% | 38 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | <1% | 49 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | <1% | 47 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | <1% | 54 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | <1% | 57 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | <1% | 64 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | <1% | 55 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 2% | 156 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 2% | 164 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 2% | 181 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 170 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 185 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 174 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 218 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 202 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 174 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 151 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 185 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 2946 simulations in which Malik Willis was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Will Reichard K · MIN 3%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 3%
- Eddy Pineiro K · SF 3%
- Andy Borregales K · NE 2%
Usually taken just after
- Harrison Butker K · KC 3%
- Will Reichard K · MIN 2%
- Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 2%
- Jayden Higgins WR · HOU 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Malik Willis was selected in 2946 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.