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HOU · Bye 8

C.J. Stroud

C.J. Stroud comes off the board at 13.07 on average in 12-team Standard 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 12.10.

12-team Standard 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to C.J. Stroud by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 2 completed games C.J. Stroud has averaged +3.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for C.J. Stroud, Standard scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 vs BUF 12.4 16.5 +4.1
Wk 2 vs CIN 13.8 17.0 +3.2
Wk 3 @ IND 17.8 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has C.J. Stroud #58 in 1QB and #34 in Superflex, QB14 at his position. Age 24.

1QB

#58

QB14 · tier 16 · of 297

Superflex

#34

QB14 · tier 8 · of 303

  • Last season 208.5 pts 14.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 89% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Attempts 31.1 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty QB rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

13.07

pick 151.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

12.10

half of simulations take him by pick 142

Draft range

12.01 - 15.08

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 6,865 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams
Scoring Standard also published: Half PPR, Full PPR
QB format 1QB
Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 12.10 in 69% of simulations

Pick 142 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 3, the same seat picks again at 13.03, where he is available in 59% of simulations.

Slot 3's remaining turns: 12.10 69% · 13.03 59% · 14.10 54% · 15.03 49%

The middle half of simulations take him between 12.04 and 15.03.

C.J. Stroud still on the board
PickAvailable
12.08 74%
12.09 72%
12.10 69%
12.11 65%
12.12 62%
13.01 59%
13.02 59%
13.03 59%
13.04 59%
13.05 59%
13.06 59%
13.07 59%
13.08 59%
13.09 59%
13.10 59%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which C.J. Stroud was selected at each pick, 12.01-12.02 through 15.07-15.08. He goes earlier than this window in 6%, later in 6%, undrafted in 31%.
Draft position distribution for C.J. Stroud
PickShare of simulationsCount
12.01-12.025%531 of 10000 simulations
12.03-12.046%567 of 10000 simulations
12.05-12.065%529 of 10000 simulations
12.07-12.086%578 of 10000 simulations
12.09-12.106%609 of 10000 simulations
12.11-12.126%601 of 10000 simulations
13.01-13.02<1%12 of 10000 simulations
13.03-13.04<1%15 of 10000 simulations
13.05-13.06<1%21 of 10000 simulations
13.07-13.08<1%17 of 10000 simulations
13.09-13.10<1%27 of 10000 simulations
13.11-13.12<1%32 of 10000 simulations
14.01-14.02<1%84 of 10000 simulations
14.03-14.041%102 of 10000 simulations
14.05-14.06<1%93 of 10000 simulations
14.07-14.08<1%98 of 10000 simulations
14.09-14.101%114 of 10000 simulations
14.11-14.121%110 of 10000 simulations
15.01-15.024%353 of 10000 simulations
15.03-15.043%338 of 10000 simulations
15.05-15.063%347 of 10000 simulations
15.07-15.084%397 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 6865 simulations in which C.J. Stroud was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

C.J. Stroud was selected in 6865 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
September 17, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)

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Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.