HOU · Bye 8
C.J. Stroud
LMD QB Tier 3 for Week 9 · 16.0 projected Standard points
In season
Week 9 fantasy ranking
We project 16.0 points this week, QB Tier 3. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 6.3 - 27.2 points. Top 3: 10% · Top 12: 44% · Top 24: 85% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
QB Tier 3
15.3 - 16.4 projected points
Projected
16.0
week 9, Standard
Top 12
44%
Top 3: 10% · Top 24: 85% at QB
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at QB in Week 8
Should you start C.J. Stroud in Week 9?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks C.J. Stroud QB12 for Week 9, inside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 44% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.02 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.17 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.84 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.05 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.28 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Week 7 Fantasy football projection risers and fallers: C.J. Stroud, Woody Marks rise as Patrick Mahomes slips
CBS Sports ·
-
C.J. Stroud, Texans desperately need Nico Collins’ injury trend to continue for Week 4
Yahoo Sports ·
-
C.J. Stroud Gets More Bad News Amid Nico Collins, Jadeveon Clowney Updates
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to C.J. Stroud by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games C.J. Stroud has averaged +3.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BUF | 12.4 | 16.5 | +4.1 |
| Wk 2 | vs CIN | 13.8 | 17.0 | +3.2 |
| Wk 3 | @ IND | 16.3 | 11.7 | -4.6 |
| Wk 4 | vs DAL | 15.5 | 23.1 | +7.6 |
| Wk 5 | @ TEN | 15.4 | 20.9 | +5.5 |
| Wk 6 | @ JAX | 15.5 | 23.0 | +7.5 |
| Wk 7 | vs NYG | 16.7 | 16.5 | -0.2 |
| Wk 9 | @ LAC | 16.0 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has C.J. Stroud #58 in 1QB and #34 in Superflex, QB14 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#58
QB14 · tier 16 · of 300
Superflex
#34
QB14 · tier 8 · of 307
- Last season 208.5 pts 14.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 89% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 31.1 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.07
pick 151.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.10
half of simulations take him by pick 142
Draft range
12.01 - 15.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 6,832 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.10 in 69% of simulations
Pick 142 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 3, the same seat picks again at 13.03, where he is available in 59% of simulations.
Slot 3's remaining turns: 12.10 69% · 13.03 59% · 14.10 54% · 15.03 49%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.04 and 15.02.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.08 | 75% |
| 12.09 | 72% |
| 12.10 | 69% |
| 12.11 | 66% |
| 12.12 | 63% |
| 13.01 | 60% |
| 13.02 | 60% |
| 13.03 | 59% |
| 13.04 | 59% |
| 13.05 | 59% |
| 13.06 | 59% |
| 13.07 | 59% |
| 13.08 | 59% |
| 13.09 | 59% |
| 13.10 | 59% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.01-12.02 | 5% | 537 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.04 | 6% | 558 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.06 | 5% | 533 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.08 | 6% | 577 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.10 | 6% | 591 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-12.12 | 6% | 606 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.02 | <1% | 13 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.04 | <1% | 12 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.06 | <1% | 20 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.08 | <1% | 16 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.10 | <1% | 21 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-13.12 | <1% | 31 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.02 | <1% | 80 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.04 | 1% | 103 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.06 | <1% | 98 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.08 | <1% | 94 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.10 | 1% | 107 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-14.12 | 1% | 134 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 4% | 365 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03-15.04 | 3% | 320 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.06 | 4% | 361 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07-15.08 | 3% | 344 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 6832 simulations in which C.J. Stroud was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 3%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 3%
- Baker Mayfield QB · TB 3%
- Travis Kelce TE · KC 2%
Usually taken just after
- Kyler Murray QB · MIN 3%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 2%
- Baker Mayfield QB · TB 2%
- Woody Marks RB · HOU 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
C.J. Stroud was selected in 6832 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.