DET · Bye 6
Jared Goff
LMD QB Tier 2 for Week 9 · 18.1 projected Standard points
In season
Week 9 fantasy ranking
We project 18.1 points this week, QB Tier 2. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 6.9 - 31.1 points. Top 3: 16% · Top 12: 53% · Top 24: 88% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
QB Tier 2
17.3 - 18.1 projected points
Projected
18.1
week 9, Standard
Top 12
53%
Top 3: 16% · Top 24: 88% at QB
Movement
↑ 2
QB7 in Week 8, QB5 now
Should you start Jared Goff in Week 9?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Jared Goff QB5 for Week 9, inside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 53% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
QB5 vs QB11 +6
LMD has him QB5. The fantasy draft market has him QB11, 6 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.06 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.28 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.96 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.07 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+0.93 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Lions’ Jared Goff explains going ‘rogue’ in an unusual offensive role
mlive.com ·
-
When the whistle blows after the unthinkable: How Jared Goff and the Lions players played through heartbreak
cleveland.com ·
-
Fantasy football Week 9 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em quarterbacks: Jared Goff gets back on track vs. Dolphins
CBS Sports ·
-
Lions QB Jared Goff Provides Update on Locker Room Mentality Following Horrific Injury
yardbarker.com ·
-
“Absolutely Ridiculous Not to Have Jared Goff Here”: Lions Fans Call Out Dave Portnoy Over “Beyond Laughable” QB Rankings
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jared Goff by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Jared Goff has averaged +3.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NO | 13.5 | 16.4 | +2.9 |
| Wk 2 | @ BUF | 14.6 | 29.8 | +15.2 |
| Wk 3 | vs NYJ | 17.1 | 19.4 | +2.3 |
| Wk 4 | @ CAR | 16.3 | 20.5 | +4.2 |
| Wk 5 | @ ARI | 19.0 | 28.9 | +9.9 |
| Wk 7 | vs GB | 18.6 | 18.0 | -0.6 |
| Wk 8 | vs MIN | 16.1 | 9.0 | -7.1 |
| Wk 9 | @ MIA | 18.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB12. This week LMD has him 7 spots higher, at QB5.
Preseason market: QB12 · ADP 103.4
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 9
QB5 +7
LMD has him 7 spots higher than his QB12 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB12 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jared Goff #34 in 1QB and #19 in Superflex, QB8 at his position. Age 31.
1QB
#34
QB8 · tier 12 · of 300
Superflex
#19
QB8 · tier 6 · of 307
- Last season 297.1 pts 17.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 33.6 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
9.07
pick 103.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
9.06
half of simulations take him by pick 102
Draft range
8.01 - 11.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,998 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 9.06 in 51% of simulations
Pick 102 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 10.07, where he is available in 23% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 9.06 51% · 10.07 23% · 11.06 7% · 12.07 <1% · 13.06 <1% · 14.07 <1% · 15.06 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 8.08 and 10.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.04 | 56% |
| 9.05 | 54% |
| 9.06 | 51% |
| 9.07 | 49% |
| 9.08 | 46% |
| 9.09 | 44% |
| 9.10 | 41% |
| 9.11 | 39% |
| 9.12 | 37% |
| 10.01 | 34% |
| 10.02 | 33% |
| 10.03 | 31% |
| 10.04 | 29% |
| 10.05 | 27% |
| 10.06 | 25% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.01-8.02 | 3% | 314 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 4% | 354 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 4% | 441 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 5% | 486 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 5% | 542 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 6% | 575 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 5% | 511 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 4% | 433 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 5% | 507 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 5% | 509 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 5% | 462 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 5% | 473 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 4% | 366 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 4% | 366 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 4% | 377 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 3% | 332 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 3% | 326 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 3% | 299 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 3% | 288 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03 | 1% | 126 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9998 simulations in which Jared Goff was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 3%
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 2%
- Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 2%
- Jaxson Dart QB · NYG 2%
Usually taken just after
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 2%
- Justin Herbert QB · LAC 2%
- Brock Purdy QB · SF 2%
- Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jared Goff was selected in 9998 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.