DET · Bye 6
Jared Goff
Jared Goff comes off the board at 9.07 on average in 12-team Standard 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 9.06.
12-team Standard 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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Jared Goff Calls for 'Urgency' As QB Details Key Reason Behind Loss to Bills
yardbarker.com ·
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Former Lions QB Calls Out Jared Goff During Rough Bills Loss
Yahoo Sports ·
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Detroit Lions' quarterback Jared Goff keeps the ball and runs away from Buffalo Bills' defensive tackle DeWayne Carter during the second half at the Bills' home opener game against the Lions on Sept.
Sports Illustrated ·
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Lions grades: Defensive meltdown squanders outstanding Jared Goff night
Yahoo Sports ·
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3 Lions winners and 6 losers from the loss to the Bills: Jared Goff shines, Brad Holmes needs to make a move, Kelvin Sheppard gets burned
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jared Goff by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Jared Goff has averaged +9.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NO | 13.5 | 16.4 | +2.9 |
| Wk 2 | @ BUF | 14.6 | 29.8 | +15.2 |
| Wk 3 | vs NYJ | 18.3 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB12. No board we publish ranks him now, so there is nothing to measure that price against.
Preseason market: QB12 · ADP 103.4
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB12 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jared Goff #34 in 1QB and #19 in Superflex, QB8 at his position. Age 31.
1QB
#34
QB8 · tier 12 · of 297
Superflex
#19
QB8 · tier 6 · of 303
- Last season 297.1 pts 17.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 33.6 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
9.07
pick 103.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
9.06
half of simulations take him by pick 102
Draft range
8.01 - 11.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,999 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 9.06 in 51% of simulations
Pick 102 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 10.07, where he is available in 23% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 9.06 51% · 10.07 23% · 11.06 7% · 12.07 <1% · 13.06 <1% · 14.07 <1% · 15.06 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 8.08 and 10.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.04 | 56% |
| 9.05 | 54% |
| 9.06 | 51% |
| 9.07 | 49% |
| 9.08 | 46% |
| 9.09 | 44% |
| 9.10 | 42% |
| 9.11 | 39% |
| 9.12 | 37% |
| 10.01 | 34% |
| 10.02 | 33% |
| 10.03 | 31% |
| 10.04 | 29% |
| 10.05 | 27% |
| 10.06 | 25% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.01-8.02 | 3% | 316 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 4% | 355 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 4% | 438 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 5% | 484 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 5% | 536 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 6% | 575 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 5% | 512 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 4% | 434 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 5% | 513 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 5% | 467 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 5% | 471 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 4% | 362 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 4% | 371 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 4% | 385 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 3% | 325 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 3% | 334 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 3% | 308 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 3% | 285 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03 | 1% | 124 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9999 simulations in which Jared Goff was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 3%
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 2%
- Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 2%
- Jaxson Dart QB · NYG 2%
Usually taken just after
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 2%
- Justin Herbert QB · LAC 2%
- Brock Purdy QB · SF 2%
- Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jared Goff was selected in 9999 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.