NO · Bye 8
Tyler Shough
LMD QB Tier 3 for Week 9 · 15.5 projected Standard points
In season
Week 9 fantasy ranking
We project 15.5 points this week, QB Tier 3. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 5.8 - 26.4 points. Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 43% · Top 24: 83% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
QB Tier 3
15.3 - 16.4 projected points
Projected
15.5
week 9, Standard
Top 12
43%
Top 3: 9% · Top 24: 83% at QB
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at QB in Week 8
Should you start Tyler Shough in Week 9?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Tyler Shough QB14 for Week 9, just outside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 43% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.18 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.49 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.81 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.23 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.00 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Saints QB Tyler Shough Sends Strong Message About Jordyn Tyson
newsweek.com ·
-
Saints’ Tyler Shough is hyped after seeing Jordyn Tyson back in practice
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Saints’ Tyler Shough is hyped after seeing Jordyn Tyson back in practice
clutchpoints.com ·
-
‘This Was Intentional,’ ‘He Tried To Do With Tyler Shough Before’ — Podcaster Rips Ravens LB Roquan Smith’s Excessive Contact With Josh Allen
Yahoo Sports ·
-
“I Really Don’t See It”: Ex-Saints Star Questions Tyler Shough & Co.’s Commitment to Kellen Moore Amid 2-5 Start
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Tyler Shough by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Tyler Shough has averaged +1.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ DET | 13.1 | 23.2 | +10.1 |
| Wk 2 | @ BAL | 15.7 | 22.4 | +6.7 |
| Wk 3 | vs LV | 18.5 | 23.8 | +5.3 |
| Wk 4 | vs ATL | 17.9 | 15.9 | -2.0 |
| Wk 5 | vs MIN | 16.1 | -0.2 | -16.3 |
| Wk 6 | @ NYG | 16.0 | 27.0 | +11.0 |
| Wk 7 | vs PIT | 15.3 | 13.8 | -1.5 |
| Wk 9 | vs CLE | 15.5 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Tyler Shough #116 in 1QB and #92 in Superflex, QB23 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#116
QB23 · tier 26 · of 300
Superflex
#92
QB23 · tier 16 · of 307
- Last season 158.0 pts 14.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 65% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 29.7 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
11.10
pick 130.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.07
half of simulations take him by pick 127
Draft range
10.03 - 14.06
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,549 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.07 in 54% of simulations
Pick 127 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 12.06, where he is available in 30% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 11.07 54% · 12.06 30% · 13.07 16% · 14.06 14% · 15.07 8%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.10 and 12.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.05 | 59% |
| 11.06 | 57% |
| 11.07 | 54% |
| 11.08 | 52% |
| 11.09 | 49% |
| 11.10 | 47% |
| 11.11 | 45% |
| 11.12 | 42% |
| 12.01 | 40% |
| 12.02 | 38% |
| 12.03 | 36% |
| 12.04 | 34% |
| 12.05 | 32% |
| 12.06 | 30% |
| 12.07 | 27% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.03-10.05 | 6% | 640 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.08 | 7% | 674 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.11 | 7% | 722 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.02 | 7% | 735 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.05 | 8% | 768 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.08 | 7% | 735 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.11 | 7% | 680 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.02 | 7% | 666 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.05 | 6% | 622 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.08 | 6% | 628 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.11 | 6% | 566 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.02 | 2% | 160 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.05 | <1% | 12 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.08 | <1% | 19 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.11 | <1% | 20 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.02 | <1% | 65 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.05 | <1% | 64 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06 | <1% | 24 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9549 simulations in which Tyler Shough was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 2%
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2%
- Fernando Mendoza QB · LV 2%
- Rachaad White RB · WAS 2%
Usually taken just after
- Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 2%
- Baker Mayfield QB · TB 2%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 2%
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Tyler Shough was selected in 9549 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.