PIT · Bye 9
Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers comes off the board at 14.12 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty mock drafts, with a median of 14.12.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
-
Aaron Rodgers' favorite target? Michael Pittman Jr. debut. Things to watch in Steelers opener
USA TODAY ·
-
Aaron Rodgers Sends Strong Message to Steelers Offense About DK Metcalf
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Aaron Rodgers by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Aaron Rodgers has averaged -3.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs ATL | 11.3 | 12.5 | +1.2 |
| Wk 2 | @ NE | 11.9 | 4.0 | -7.9 |
| Wk 3 | vs CIN | 14.3 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Aaron Rodgers #178 in 1QB and #164 in Superflex, QB34 at his position. Age 42.
1QB
#178
QB34 · tier 40 · of 297
Superflex
#164
QB34 · tier 30 · of 303
- Last season 226.6 pts 14.2 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 78% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 26.1 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.12
pick 168.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.12
half of simulations take him by pick 168
Draft range
14.02 - 15.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 4,233 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Aaron Rodgers.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.12 in 80% of simulations
Pick 168 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 15.01, where he is available in 79% of simulations.
Slot 1's remaining turns: 14.12 80% · 15.01 79%
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.06 and 15.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.10 | 84% |
| 14.11 | 82% |
| 14.12 | 80% |
| 15.01 | 79% |
| 15.02 | 77% |
| 15.03 | 75% |
| 15.04 | 74% |
| 15.05 | 72% |
| 15.06 | 70% |
| 15.07 | 68% |
| 15.08 | 66% |
| 15.09 | 64% |
| 15.10 | 63% |
| 15.11 | 61% |
| 15.12 | 59% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.02 | 1% | 139 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03 | 2% | 152 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04 | 1% | 136 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05 | 2% | 152 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06 | 2% | 163 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | 1% | 146 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | 1% | 146 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | 2% | 171 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | 2% | 194 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | 2% | 187 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | 2% | 168 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 2% | 177 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 2% | 156 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 2% | 166 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 199 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 180 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 166 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 184 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 186 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 166 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 189 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 4233 simulations in which Aaron Rodgers was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Ollie Gordon II RB · MIA 3%
- Brashard Smith RB · KC 3%
- Matthew Golden WR · GB 2%
- Xavier Legette WR · CAR 2%
Usually taken just after
- Ollie Gordon II RB · MIA 3%
- Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET 3%
- Chris Brazzell II WR · CAR 3%
- Brashard Smith RB · KC 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Aaron Rodgers was selected in 4233 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.