MIN · Bye 6
Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray comes off the board at 13.10 on average in 12-team Standard 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 12.12.
12-team Standard 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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STATUS
Kyler Murray was listed as Questionable.
Let's Mock Draft ·
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Kyler Murray could miss Week 2, but that might not stop Justin Jefferson from having another huge game for the Vikings.
Sports Illustrated ·
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Vikings’ Justin Jefferson Addresses Scary Kyler Murray Concussion After Week 1 Victory
Yahoo Sports ·
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Vikings WR Justin Jefferson sends prayers to Kyler Murray after ‘scary’ injury
bundle.app ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Kyler Murray by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Kyler Murray has averaged -14.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs GB | 14.4 | -0.4 | -14.8 |
| Wk 2 | @ CHI | 9.6 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | @ TB | 14.4 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB17. No board we publish ranks him now, so there is nothing to measure that price against.
Preseason market: QB17 · ADP 136.0
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB17 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Kyler Murray #177 in 1QB and #162 in Superflex, QB33 at his position. Age 29.
1QB
#177
QB33 · tier 40 · of 297
Superflex
#162
QB33 · tier 30 · of 303
- Last season 77.8 pts 15.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 54% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 32.3 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.10
pick 153.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.12
half of simulations take him by pick 144
Draft range
12.02 - 15.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 6,978 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.12 in 66% of simulations
Pick 144 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 13.01, where he is available in 63% of simulations.
Slot 1's remaining turns: 12.12 66% · 13.01 63% · 14.12 56% · 15.01 55%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.06 and 15.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.10 | 72% |
| 12.11 | 69% |
| 12.12 | 66% |
| 13.01 | 63% |
| 13.02 | 63% |
| 13.03 | 63% |
| 13.04 | 63% |
| 13.05 | 63% |
| 13.06 | 63% |
| 13.07 | 63% |
| 13.08 | 62% |
| 13.09 | 62% |
| 13.10 | 62% |
| 13.11 | 62% |
| 13.12 | 62% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.02-12.03 | 5% | 502 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.05 | 6% | 566 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.07 | 6% | 574 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.09 | 6% | 586 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.11 | 6% | 591 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 3% | 308 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | <1% | 15 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | <1% | 18 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | <1% | 19 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | <1% | 27 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | <1% | 30 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | <1% | 66 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | <1% | 94 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | <1% | 82 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 1% | 121 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 1% | 129 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 1% | 149 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 3% | 306 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 4% | 426 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 4% | 430 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06-15.07 | 4% | 425 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08-15.09 | 4% | 371 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 6978 simulations in which Kyler Murray was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- C.J. Stroud QB · HOU 3%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 3%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 2%
- Sam Darnold QB · SEA 2%
Usually taken just after
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 3%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 2%
- C.J. Stroud QB · HOU 2%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Kyler Murray was selected in 6978 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.