BAL · Bye 13
Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson comes off the board at 3.12 on average in 12-team Standard 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 3.12.
12-team Standard 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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Lamar Jackson Week 2 grades: A tough finish to frustrating Ravens outing
Yahoo Sports ·
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Louisville's Jeff Brohm lauds Tyler Shough after QB outduels Lamar Jackson
Yahoo Sports ·
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Lamar Jackson Breaks Silence on Tyler Shough’s Controversial Touchdown Call
sports.ndtv.com ·
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'I Don’t Think He Scored': Lamar Jackson Risks NFL Punishment After Calling Out Refs’ Decision on Tyler Shough’s Controversial TD
yardbarker.com ·
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'We hit people in the mouth.' How the Saints defense kept Lamar Jackson, Ravens in check.
theadvocate.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Lamar Jackson by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Lamar Jackson has averaged -1.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ IND | 20.5 | 25.0 | +4.5 |
| Wk 2 | vs NO | 22.5 | 14.8 | -7.7 |
| Wk 3 | @ DAL | 18.0 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB3. No board we publish ranks him now, so there is nothing to measure that price against.
Preseason market: QB3 · ADP 54.9
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB3 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Lamar Jackson #62 in 1QB and #36 in Superflex, QB15 at his position. Age 29.
1QB
#62
QB15 · tier 17 · of 297
Superflex
#36
QB15 · tier 9 · of 303
- Last season 214.9 pts 16.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 87% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 25.7 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.12
pick 36.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.12
half of simulations take him by pick 36
Draft range
2.11 - 4.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.12 in 53% of simulations
Pick 36 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 4.01, where he is available in 49% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 3.12 53% · 4.01 49% · 5.12 <1% · 6.01 <1% · 7.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.05 and 4.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.10 | 60% |
| 3.11 | 57% |
| 3.12 | 53% |
| 4.01 | 49% |
| 4.02 | 45% |
| 4.03 | 42% |
| 4.04 | 38% |
| 4.05 | 34% |
| 4.06 | 31% |
| 4.07 | 27% |
| 4.08 | 23% |
| 4.09 | 20% |
| 4.10 | 17% |
| 4.11 | 14% |
| 4.12 | 12% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.11-2.12 | 4% | 397 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01-3.02 | 5% | 522 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03-3.04 | 6% | 584 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05-3.06 | 7% | 655 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07-3.08 | 6% | 648 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09-3.10 | 6% | 646 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11-3.12 | 8% | 760 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01-4.02 | 7% | 725 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03-4.04 | 7% | 736 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05-4.06 | 8% | 758 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07-4.08 | 7% | 672 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09-4.10 | 6% | 599 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11-4.12 | 5% | 477 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Lamar Jackson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Cam Skattebo RB · NYG 4%
- Travis Etienne RB · NO 4%
- Tee Higgins WR · CIN 3%
- Josh Allen QB · BUF 3%
Usually taken just after
- Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 4%
- Cam Skattebo RB · NYG 3%
- Malik Nabers WR · NYG 3%
- Travis Etienne RB · NO 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Lamar Jackson was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.