SEA · Bye 11
Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold comes off the board at 13.01 on average in 12-team Standard 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 12.07.
12-team Standard 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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Seahawks say QB Sam Darnold will return to practice ‘in some capacity’
union-bulletin.com ·
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Seattle Seahawks offense makes major statement without Sam Darnold as Jaxon Smith-Njigba sets new career high in dominant win
yardbarker.com ·
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NFC Notes: Sam Darnold Injury, Myles Garrett Injury, Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks
yardbarker.com ·
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Seahawks injury report: Sam Darnold out, Anthony Bradford questionable
Yahoo Sports ·
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Seahawks DB Nick Emmanwori questionable, Sam Darnold out but 'on his way back'
The New York Times ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Sam Darnold by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Sam Darnold has averaged -12.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NE | 12.5 | 0.5 | -12.0 |
| Wk 2 | @ ARI | 7.8 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Sam Darnold #103 in 1QB and #81 in Superflex, QB21 at his position. Age 29.
1QB
#103
QB21 · tier 25 · of 297
Superflex
#81
QB21 · tier 15 · of 303
- Last season 235.4 pts 13.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 24.6 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.01
pick 145.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.07
half of simulations take him by pick 139
Draft range
11.07 - 15.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 8,074 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.07 in 60% of simulations
Pick 139 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 13.06, where he is available in 43% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 12.07 60% · 13.06 43% · 14.07 40% · 15.06 29%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.11 and 14.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.05 | 66% |
| 12.06 | 63% |
| 12.07 | 60% |
| 12.08 | 58% |
| 12.09 | 55% |
| 12.10 | 52% |
| 12.11 | 49% |
| 12.12 | 46% |
| 13.01 | 44% |
| 13.02 | 44% |
| 13.03 | 43% |
| 13.04 | 43% |
| 13.05 | 43% |
| 13.06 | 43% |
| 13.07 | 43% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 11.07-11.09 | 8% | 774 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.12 | 8% | 794 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.03 | 8% | 784 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.06 | 8% | 818 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.09 | 9% | 857 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.12 | 8% | 822 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.03 | <1% | 24 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.06 | <1% | 16 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.09 | <1% | 34 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.12 | <1% | 59 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.03 | 1% | 120 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.06 | 1% | 129 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.09 | 1% | 131 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.12 | 2% | 161 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.03 | 5% | 499 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.06 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 171 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 8074 simulations in which Sam Darnold was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Woody Marks RB · HOU 3%
- Kenyon Sadiq TE · NYJ 2%
- Baker Mayfield QB · TB 2%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
Usually taken just after
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 3%
- Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 2%
- Baker Mayfield QB · TB 2%
- Brenton Strange TE · JAX 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Sam Darnold was selected in 8074 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.