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NFL · 2026 Week 6

2026 Week 6 Standard QB Rankings

Final pre-kickoff board · published October 15, 2026, 21:56 UTC · first kickoff October 16, 2026, 00:15 UTC

Standard, 1QB · 34 players projected · updated October 15, 2026

See how these rankings performed

View current weekly rankings

How these rankings work

How these rankings are built

We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.

We then update those expectations for Week 6 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.

We then simulate the week 4,000 times and rank players by the projected fantasy points those simulations produce.

This board is priced in Standard. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.

What the percentages mean

For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.

Top 3
how often he finishes among the top three at his position
Top 12
how often he finishes in the top 12
Top 24
how often he finishes in the top 24

A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.

How often a strong start lasts

Since 1999, 67% of QBs inside the top 12 through Week 5 finished the season inside the top 12. Measured over 324 QB-seasons from 1999-2025, in the same scoring rule as this board.

What stood out in Week 6

34 QBs ranked for Week 6. Josh Allen leads at 20.2 projected points.

Tier breaks

1.5 projected points separate QB3 Matthew Stafford from QB4 Drake Maye.

8.5 projected points separate QB28 Tyson Bagent from QB29 Lamar Jackson.

Biggest differences from the draft market

Ahead

  • Tanner McKeeQB27Sportsbooks pricing him above our baselineTop 3: 4% · Top 12: 20% · Top 24: 65% +41 vs. QB68
  • Tyson BagentQB28Recent usage above his season baselineTop 3: 2% · Top 12: 14% · Top 24: 59% +17 vs. QB45

Behind

  • Lamar JacksonQB29Our projection is lower than the outside forecast -27 vs. QB2
  • Caleb WilliamsQB30Our projection is lower than the outside forecast -19 vs. QB11
  • Justin HerbertQB24Sportsbooks pricing him below our baselineTop 3: 3% · Top 12: 27% · Top 24: 79% -8 vs. QB16

Movement

Risers

  • Jameis WinstonQB17Top 3: 10% · Top 12: 41% · Top 24: 84% ↑ 12
  • Jordan LoveQB5Top 3: 15% · Top 12: 55% · Top 24: 90% ↑ 10
  • Kirk CousinsQB9Top 3: 13% · Top 12: 51% · Top 24: 89% ↑ 8

Fallers

  • Lamar JacksonQB29 ↓ 17
  • Dak PrescottQB7Top 3: 13% · Top 12: 54% · Top 24: 91% ↓ 4
  • Deshaun WatsonQB15Top 3: 11% · Top 12: 45% · Top 24: 87% ↓ 4

Positional movement since the final Week 5 board, among players inside QB30 either week. Players not ranked at their position then are excluded.

2026 Week 6 Standard QB Rankings -- Standard scoring: projected fantasy points and the share of simulated weeks finishing top 3, top 12 and top 24 at the position. From our own statistical and market model, not analyst consensus.
# Pos Player Pos rank Proj
1 QB Josh AllenBUF
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 25% of the time, 4th to 12th 40%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 8%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB9 at the median, QB4 - QB16 in the middle half, and QB1 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 25%Top 12: 65%Top 24: 92%
 QB1↑ 1 20.2
2 QB Brock PurdySF
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 22% of the time, 4th to 12th 40%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 8%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB9 at the median, QB4 - QB17 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 22%Top 12: 62%Top 24: 92%
 QB2↑ 3 19.2
3 QB Matthew StaffordLAR
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 42%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 8%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB9 at the median, QB4 - QB17 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB23 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 20%Top 12: 62%Top 24: 92%
 QB3↑ 1 19.0
4 QB Drake MayeNE
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 36%, and outside the top 24 9%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB11 at the median, QB6 - QB18 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 16%Top 12: 54%Top 24: 91%
 QB4↑ 5 17.5
5 QB Jordan LoveGB
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 40%, 13th to 24th 35%, and outside the top 24 10%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB11 at the median, QB6 - QB18 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 15%Top 12: 55%Top 24: 90%
 QB5↑ 10 17.4
6 QB Jayden DanielsWAS
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 37%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB12 at the median, QB6 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 16%Top 12: 50%Top 24: 88%
 QB6↑ 1 17.1
7 QB Dak PrescottDAL
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 41%, 13th to 24th 37%, and outside the top 24 9%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB12 at the median, QB6 - QB18 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 13%Top 12: 54%Top 24: 91%
 QB7↓ 4 17.1
8 QB Bryce YoungCAR
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 37%, and outside the top 24 11%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB12 at the median, QB6 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 14%Top 12: 51%Top 24: 89%
 QB8NEW 16.8
9 QB Kirk CousinsLV
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 38%, and outside the top 24 11%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB12 at the median, QB6 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 13%Top 12: 51%Top 24: 89%
 QB9↑ 8 16.6
10 QB Patrick MahomesKC
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 37%, and outside the top 24 13%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB6 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 13%Top 12: 50%Top 24: 87%
 QB10NEW 16.4
11 QB Tyler ShoughNO
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 41%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 48%Top 24: 88%
 QB11↓ 3 16.0
12 QB Jacoby BrissettARI
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 42%, and outside the top 24 13%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 45%Top 24: 87%
 QB12↓ 2 15.6
13 QB Trevor LawrenceJAX
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 43%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 45%Top 24: 88%
 QB13— 15.6
14 QB C.J. StroudHOU
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 43%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 45%Top 24: 88%
 QB14— 15.5
15 QB Deshaun WatsonCLE
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 42%, and outside the top 24 13%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 45%Top 24: 87%
 QB15↓ 4 15.5
16 QB Aaron RodgersPIT
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 43%, and outside the top 24 14%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB8 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 43%Top 24: 87%
 QB16↑ 3 15.2
17 QB Jameis WinstonNYG
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 43%, and outside the top 24 16%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 41%Top 24: 84%
 QB17↑ 12 14.7
18 QB Michael Penix Jr.ATL
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 46%, and outside the top 24 17%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB9 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 38%Top 24: 83%
 QB18↑ 7 14.3
19 QB Bo NixDEN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 47%, and outside the top 24 17%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB9 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 36%Top 24: 83%
 QB19↓ 3 13.8
20 QB Daniel JonesIND
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 49%, and outside the top 24 16%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB10 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 35%Top 24: 84%
 QB20↑ 6 13.7
21 QB Sam DarnoldSEA
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 46%, and outside the top 24 19%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB9 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 35%Top 24: 81%
 QB21↓ 1 13.7
22 QB Geno SmithNYJ
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 48%, and outside the top 24 17%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB10 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 35%Top 24: 83%
 QB22— 13.6
23 QB Jalon DanielsTB
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 51%, and outside the top 24 22%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB19 at the median, QB12 - QB24 in the middle half, and QB6 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 26%Top 24: 78%
 QB23↑ 5 12.2
24 QB Justin HerbertLAC
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 53%, and outside the top 24 21%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB18 at the median, QB12 - QB24 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 27%Top 24: 79%
 QB24↓ 3 12.2
25 QB Tyler HuntleyBAL
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 43%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB20 at the median, QB12 - QB26 in the middle half, and QB6 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 26%Top 24: 69%
 QB25NEW 11.7
26 QB Cam WardTEN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 52%, and outside the top 24 24%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB19 at the median, QB13 - QB24 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 76%
 QB26↑ 4 11.7
27 QB Tanner McKeePHI
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 45%, and outside the top 24 35%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB22 at the median, QB14 - QB26 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 65%
 QB27NEW 10.6
28 QB Tyson BagentCHI
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 45%, and outside the top 24 41%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB23 at the median, QB17 - QB27 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 59%
 QB28↓ 4 9.2
29 QB Lamar JacksonBALQQuestionable
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB40 at the median, QB39 - QB41 in the middle half, and QB37 - QB41 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 4%
 QB29↓ 17 0.7
30 QB Caleb WilliamsCHIQQuestionable
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB69 at the median, QB68 - QB69 in the middle half, and QB67 - QB70 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 4%
 QB30NEW 0.7
31 QB Drew LockSEA
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB70 at the median, QB69 - QB70 in the middle half, and QB68 - QB71 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3%
 QB31NEW 0.6
32 QB Mac JonesSF
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB80 at the median, QB80 - QB80 in the middle half, and QB79 - QB80 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3%
 QB32NEW 0.6
33 QB Justin FieldsKC
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB30 at the median, QB29 - QB31 in the middle half, and QB27 - QB32 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3%
 QB33NEW 0.5
34 QB Ty SimpsonLAR
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB31 at the median, QB30 - QB32 in the middle half, and QB28 - QB33 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3%
 QB34NEW 0.5

Simulated finishes

This board is ranked by projected fantasy points. The map shows where those same players finished at their own position across the 4,000 simulated weeks the projections came from.

Box: the middle half of a player's simulated finishes. Line: his median. Thin bar: the middle 80%. Two players whose boxes overlap are two players this board does not separate.

Week 6 QB outcome map: the positional finish each player reaches across the 4,000 simulated weeks, as a median, a middle half and a middle 80%. The board itself is ranked by projected fantasy points.

Projected rank
Median finish
13612243660
  1. QB1 Josh Allen
    QB9
    Josh Allen is ranked QB1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB9 at the median, QB4 - QB16 in the middle half, and QB1 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
  2. QB2 Brock Purdy
    QB9
    Brock Purdy is ranked QB2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB9 at the median, QB4 - QB17 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
  3. QB3 Matthew Stafford
    QB9
    Matthew Stafford is ranked QB3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB9 at the median, QB4 - QB17 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB23 in the middle 80%.
  4. QB4 Drake Maye
    QB11
    Drake Maye is ranked QB4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB11 at the median, QB6 - QB18 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
  5. QB5 Jordan Love
    QB11
    Jordan Love is ranked QB5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB11 at the median, QB6 - QB18 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
  6. QB6 Jayden Daniels
    QB12
    Jayden Daniels is ranked QB6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB12 at the median, QB6 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
  7. QB7 Dak Prescott
    QB12
    Dak Prescott is ranked QB7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB12 at the median, QB6 - QB18 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
  8. QB8 Bryce Young
    QB12
    Bryce Young is ranked QB8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB12 at the median, QB6 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
  9. QB9 Kirk Cousins
    QB12
    Kirk Cousins is ranked QB9 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB12 at the median, QB6 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
  10. QB10 Patrick Mahomes
    QB13
    Patrick Mahomes is ranked QB10 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB6 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
  11. QB11 Tyler Shough
    QB13
    Tyler Shough is ranked QB11 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
  12. QB12 Jacoby Brissett
    QB14
    Jacoby Brissett is ranked QB12 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
  13. QB13 Trevor Lawrence
    QB14
    Trevor Lawrence is ranked QB13 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
  14. QB14 C.J. Stroud
    QB14
    C.J. Stroud is ranked QB14 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
  15. QB15 Deshaun Watson
    QB14
    Deshaun Watson is ranked QB15 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
  16. QB16 Aaron Rodgers
    QB14
    Aaron Rodgers is ranked QB16 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB8 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
  17. QB17 Jameis Winston
    QB15
    Jameis Winston is ranked QB17 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
  18. QB18 Michael Penix Jr.
    QB16
    Michael Penix Jr. is ranked QB18 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB9 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  19. QB19 Bo Nix
    QB16
    Bo Nix is ranked QB19 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB9 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
  20. QB20 Daniel Jones
    QB16
    Daniel Jones is ranked QB20 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB10 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
  21. QB21 Sam Darnold
    QB17
    Sam Darnold is ranked QB21 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB9 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  22. QB22 Geno Smith
    QB16
    Geno Smith is ranked QB22 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB10 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
  23. QB23 Jalon Daniels
    QB19
    Jalon Daniels is ranked QB23 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB19 at the median, QB12 - QB24 in the middle half, and QB6 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  24. QB24 Justin Herbert
    QB18
    Justin Herbert is ranked QB24 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB18 at the median, QB12 - QB24 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Show QB25 - QB34
  1. QB25 Tyler Huntley
    QB20
    Tyler Huntley is ranked QB25 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB20 at the median, QB12 - QB26 in the middle half, and QB6 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
  2. QB26 Cam Ward
    QB19
    Cam Ward is ranked QB26 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB19 at the median, QB13 - QB24 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  3. QB27 Tanner McKee
    QB22
    Tanner McKee is ranked QB27 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB22 at the median, QB14 - QB26 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
  4. QB28 Tyson Bagent
    QB23
    Tyson Bagent is ranked QB28 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB23 at the median, QB17 - QB27 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
  5. QB29 Lamar Jackson
    QB40
    Lamar Jackson is ranked QB29 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB40 at the median, QB39 - QB41 in the middle half, and QB37 - QB41 in the middle 80%.
  6. QB30 Caleb Williams
    QB69
    Caleb Williams is ranked QB30 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB69 at the median, QB68 - QB69 in the middle half, and QB67 - QB70 in the middle 80%.
  7. QB31 Drew Lock
    QB70
    Drew Lock is ranked QB31 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB70 at the median, QB69 - QB70 in the middle half, and QB68 - QB71 in the middle 80%.
  8. QB32 Mac Jones
    QB80
    Mac Jones is ranked QB32 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB80 at the median, QB80 - QB80 in the middle half, and QB79 - QB80 in the middle 80%.
  9. QB33 Justin Fields
    QB30
    Justin Fields is ranked QB33 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB30 at the median, QB29 - QB31 in the middle half, and QB27 - QB32 in the middle 80%.
  10. QB34 Ty Simpson
    QB31
    Ty Simpson is ranked QB34 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB31 at the median, QB30 - QB32 in the middle half, and QB28 - QB33 in the middle 80%.

Simulated positional finish. The scale is compressed to the right, so equal distances are not equal numbers of places.

The axis compresses lower-ranked finishes so the top of the board stays readable. Use the printed ranges for exact finish positions.

How these are made

This board was built from 2026 usage for 78% of the board, draft position for 100%, an outside projection for 58%, sportsbook props for 50%, an official status for 81%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Standard, 1QB.

Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured October 15, 2026 21:54 UTC. Movement is previous - current; positive means the player moved up the board (a smaller rank number), measured in positional rank against the final Week 5 board generated before that week's first kickoff (October 8, 2026). Model rankings-v1.4.3, board captured 2026-10-15.

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.3. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props).

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