SF · Bye 8
Mac Jones
Mac Jones comes off the board at 14.08 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty mock drafts, with a median of 14.09.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Mac Jones has averaged -7.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LAR | 3.8 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | vs MIA | 7.1 | -0.2 | -7.3 |
| Wk 3 | vs ARI | 10.5 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Mac Jones #170 in 1QB and #159 in Superflex, QB32 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#170
QB32 · tier 39 · of 297
Superflex
#159
QB32 · tier 30 · of 303
- Last season 130.0 pts 11.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 63% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 27.3 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.08
pick 164.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.09
half of simulations take him by pick 165
Draft range
13.06 - 15.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 5,510 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Mac Jones.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.09 in 73% of simulations
Pick 165 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 4, the same seat picks again at 15.04, where he is available in 60% of simulations.
Slot 4's remaining turns: 14.09 73% · 15.04 60%
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.01 and 15.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.07 | 77% |
| 14.08 | 75% |
| 14.09 | 73% |
| 14.10 | 71% |
| 14.11 | 70% |
| 14.12 | 68% |
| 15.01 | 66% |
| 15.02 | 64% |
| 15.03 | 62% |
| 15.04 | 60% |
| 15.05 | 58% |
| 15.06 | 57% |
| 15.07 | 55% |
| 15.08 | 53% |
| 15.09 | 51% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 13.06-13.07 | 3% | 286 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | 3% | 271 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | 3% | 254 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | 3% | 276 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | 3% | 318 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | 3% | 294 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 4% | 363 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 4% | 372 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 3% | 349 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 4% | 398 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 4% | 369 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 4% | 371 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06-15.07 | 4% | 370 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08-15.09 | 3% | 334 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 5510 simulations in which Mac Jones was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Brashard Smith RB · KC 2%
- Caleb Douglas WR · MIA 2%
- Zachariah Branch WR · ATL 2%
- Ja'Kobi Lane WR · BAL 2%
Usually taken just after
- Ja'Kobi Lane WR · BAL 2%
- Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 2%
- Brashard Smith RB · KC 2%
- Ollie Gordon II RB · MIA 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Mac Jones was selected in 5510 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.