12-Team Half PPR draft strategy
Drafting from pick 5 in a 12-Team Half PPR league
You are on the clock at 1.05, and again at 2.08. Everything below is counted over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts: who is actually taken at this pick, who is already gone, and who is still on the board when it comes back around.
Your picks: 1.05 · 2.08 · 3.05 · 4.08 · 5.05 · 6.08 · 7.05 · 8.08 · 9.05 · 10.08 · 11.05 · 12.08 · 13.05 · 14.08 · 15.05
Your first pick
Who is taken at 1.05
- Ja'Marr Chase is the most common selection at 1.05, taken there in 22% of simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
- 51% of the time the pick at 1.05 is a RB.
- At least 8 players who are usually on the board at 1.05 are almost never still there at 2.08.
- Kyren Williams is the highest-priced player who is genuinely a coin flip at 2.08: still available in 25% of drafts.
| Player | Taken here | Sim. avg |
|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 22% | 1.04 |
| Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 17% | 1.05 |
| Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 16% | 1.04 |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 12% | 1.07 |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 8% | 1.07 |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 5% | 1.07 |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 5% | 1.02 |
| Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 5% | 1.07 |
Before your turn
Already off the board
Priced ahead of this slot and effectively never still there when your turn arrives.
| Player | Still there | Sim. avg |
|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 9% | 1.02 |
The turn
Gone by 2.08
Usually on the board at 1.05 and almost never still there when the pick comes back around. This is the decision draft slot 5 actually makes.
| Player | At 2.08 | Sim. avg |
|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 0% | 1.07 |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 0% | 1.07 |
| Derrick HenryRB · BAL | <1% | 1.07 |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | <1% | 1.07 |
| James CookRB · BUF | <1% | 1.09 |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 1% | 1.10 |
| De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | 3% | 1.11 |
| CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 1% | 2.02 |
Your next turn
Still live at 2.08
A genuine coin flip at your next turn -- the players worth planning around rather than counting on.
| Player | At 2.08 | Sim. avg |
|---|---|---|
| Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | 25% | 2.03 |
| Jeremiyah LoveRB · ARI | 32% | 2.04 |
| A.J. BrownWR · NE | 24% | 2.06 |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | 33% | 2.06 |
| Drake LondonWR · ATL | 50% | 2.07 |
| Ashton JeantyRB · LV | 80% | 2.10 |
| Josh JacobsRB · GB | 69% | 2.11 |
| Nico CollinsWR · HOU | 84% | 2.11 |
Position mix
How this slot usually opens
| Pick | Round | Usually a |
|---|---|---|
| 1.05 | Round 1 | RB51%WR49%QB<1% |
| 2.08 | Round 2 | RB59%WR39%QB2%TE<1% |
| 3.05 | Round 3 | WR42%RB39%QB16%TE2% |
| 4.08 | Round 4 | WR53%RB23%TE12%QB12% |
| 5.05 | Round 5 | WR42%RB33%QB15%TE9% |
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page is a count over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. None of it is advice: a share is how often something happened, and a probability carries the number of drafts behind it.
A simulated draft is not a market. These pages describe how our simulated managers draft, which is a statement about our board; where a player is drafted in real leagues is a different number, published separately.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
Next
Draft it yourself
Opens a 12-team Half PPR 1QB room with seat 5 already yours.