12-Team Half PPR draft strategy
Drafting from pick 3 in a 12-Team Half PPR league
You are on the clock at 1.03, and again at 2.10. Everything below is counted over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts: who is actually taken at this pick, who is already gone, and who is still on the board when it comes back around.
Your picks: 1.03 · 2.10 · 3.03 · 4.10 · 5.03 · 6.10 · 7.03 · 8.10 · 9.03 · 10.10 · 11.03 · 12.10 · 13.03 · 14.10 · 15.03
Your first pick
Who is taken at 1.03
- Bijan Robinson is the most common selection at 1.03, taken there in 26% of simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
- 57% of the time the pick at 1.03 is a RB.
- At least 8 players who are usually on the board at 1.03 are almost never still there at 2.10.
- Jeremiyah Love is the highest-priced player who is genuinely a coin flip at 2.10: still available in 20% of drafts.
| Player | Taken here | Sim. avg |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 26% | 1.04 |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 20% | 1.02 |
| Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 19% | 1.05 |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 16% | 1.04 |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 4% | 1.07 |
| Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 4% | 1.07 |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 2% | 1.10 |
The turn
Gone by 2.10
Usually on the board at 1.03 and almost never still there when the pick comes back around. This is the decision draft slot 3 actually makes.
| Player | At 2.10 | Sim. avg |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 0% | 1.04 |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 0% | 1.04 |
| Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 0% | 1.05 |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 0% | 1.07 |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 0% | 1.07 |
| Derrick HenryRB · BAL | <1% | 1.07 |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | <1% | 1.07 |
| James CookRB · BUF | 0% | 1.09 |
Your next turn
Still live at 2.10
A genuine coin flip at your next turn -- the players worth planning around rather than counting on.
| Player | At 2.10 | Sim. avg |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremiyah LoveRB · ARI | 20% | 2.04 |
| Drake LondonWR · ATL | 36% | 2.07 |
| Ashton JeantyRB · LV | 60% | 2.10 |
| Josh JacobsRB · GB | 60% | 2.11 |
| Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | 71% | 2.11 |
| Nico CollinsWR · HOU | 69% | 2.11 |
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 73% | 2.12 |
| George PickensWR · DAL | 76% | 3.03 |
Position mix
How this slot usually opens
| Pick | Round | Usually a |
|---|---|---|
| 1.03 | Round 1 | RB57%WR43%QB<1%TE<1% |
| 2.10 | Round 2 | RB60%WR36%QB3%TE<1% |
| 3.03 | Round 3 | RB50%WR38%QB10%TE2% |
| 4.10 | Round 4 | WR51%RB23%QB13%TE12% |
| 5.03 | Round 5 | WR44%RB31%QB15%TE10% |
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page is a count over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. None of it is advice: a share is how often something happened, and a probability carries the number of drafts behind it.
A simulated draft is not a market. These pages describe how our simulated managers draft, which is a statement about our board; where a player is drafted in real leagues is a different number, published separately.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
Next
Draft it yourself
Opens a 12-team Half PPR 1QB room with seat 3 already yours.