BAL · Bye 13

Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry comes off the board at 1.11 on average in 12-team Full PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 1.11.

12-team Full PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated August 20, 2026

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulated ADP

1.11

pick 11.5 overall, on average

Median pick

1.11

half of simulations take him by pick 11

Draft range

1.04 - 2.07

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in every one

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams also published: 10 teams, 8 teams

Scoring Full PPR also published: Half PPR, Standard

QB format 1QB also published: Superflex

Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 1.11 in 54% of simulations

Pick 11 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 2.02, where he is available in 35% of simulations.

Slot 11's remaining turns: 1.11 54% · 2.02 35% · 3.11 <1% · 4.02 0%

The middle half of simulations take him between 1.07 and 2.03.

Derrick Henry still on the board
Pick	Available
1.09	68%
1.10	61%
1.11	54%
1.12	48%
2.01	41%
2.02	35%
2.03	29%
2.04	25%
2.05	20%
2.06	16%
2.07	13%
2.08	10%
2.09	7%
2.10	5%
2.11	3%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Derrick Henry was selected at each pick, 1.04 through 2.07. He goes earlier than this window in 9%, later in 10%.

Draft position distribution for Derrick Henry
Pick	Share of simulations	Count
1.04	3%	336 of 10000 simulations
1.05	4%	387 of 10000 simulations
1.06	5%	464 of 10000 simulations
1.07	6%	557 of 10000 simulations
1.08	6%	623 of 10000 simulations
1.09	6%	639 of 10000 simulations
1.10	7%	711 of 10000 simulations
1.11	6%	647 of 10000 simulations
1.12	7%	696 of 10000 simulations
2.01	6%	560 of 10000 simulations
2.02	6%	553 of 10000 simulations
2.03	5%	493 of 10000 simulations
2.04	5%	459 of 10000 simulations
2.05	4%	398 of 10000 simulations
2.06	3%	342 of 10000 simulations
2.07	3%	282 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Derrick Henry was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 6%
James Cook RB · BUF 6%
Puka Nacua WR · LAR 5%
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 5%

Usually taken just after

De'Von Achane RB · MIA 5%
James Cook RB · BUF 5%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 5%
CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 5%

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. Nothing is estimated at page load: the batch runs offline and this page reads the result.

Derrick Henry was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here has that count behind it, which is what it should be judged on.

We license no ADP feed, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.

Simulation model: simulation-v1.1
Generated: August 20, 2026
Player dataset: sleeper@2026-08-19T17:30:21.894Z
Baseline: rank

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