BAL · Bye 13
Derrick Henry
LMD RB6 for Week 4 · 17.6 projected Full PPR points · RB6 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 17.6 points this week, RB6. Top 3: 17% · Top 12: 51% · Top 24: 76% of simulated weeks. Down 1 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB6
12th by projected points
Rest of season
RB6
10th by projected points
Projected
17.6
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
51%
Top 3: 17% · Top 24: 76% at RB
Movement
↓ 1
RB5 in Week 3, RB6 now
Should you start Derrick Henry in Week 4?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Derrick Henry RB6 for Week 4, inside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 76% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.39 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.14 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.63 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.70 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Derrick Henry, Josh Allen chase a record rushing TD start
NBC Sports ·
-
Derrick Henry is a good bet to score this week.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Titans vs Ravens picks as Derrick Henry faces former team for first time
tennessean.com ·
-
Titans might be in trouble against Derrick Henry due to one major problem
Sporting News ·
-
Do Tennessee Titans fans with Derrick Henry tattoos have regrets? We asked them
tennessean.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Derrick Henry by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Derrick Henry has averaged +8.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ IND | 12.9 | 35.3 | +22.4 |
| Wk 2 | vs NO | 16.4 | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| Wk 3 | @ DAL | 19.5 | 21.9 | +2.4 |
| Wk 4 | vs TEN | 17.6 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB8. For the rest of the season LMD has him 2 spots higher, at RB6.
Preseason market: RB8 · ADP 15.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB6 +2
LMD has him 2 spots higher than his RB8 draft price.
Week 4
RB6 +2
LMD has him 2 spots higher than his RB8 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB8 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 238.3 points this season, RB6. Top 3: 18% · Top 12: 86% · Top 24: 100% of simulated seasons. That is 17.6 a game over 14 remaining games.
Per game
17.6 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 18% · Top 12: 86% · Top 24: 100%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Derrick Henry #22 in 1QB and #31 in Superflex, RB11 at his position. Age 32.
1QB
#22
RB11 · tier 9 · of 297
Superflex
#31
RB11 · tier 8 · of 303
- Last season 272.0 pts 16.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 19.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 6% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
2.02
pick 13.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
2.02
half of simulations take him by pick 14
Draft range
1.11 - 2.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 2.02 in 57% of simulations
Pick 14 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 3.11, where he is available in 0% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 2.02 57% · 3.11 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 1.12 and 2.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 1.12 | 85% |
| 2.01 | 73% |
| 2.02 | 57% |
| 2.03 | 40% |
| 2.04 | 25% |
| 2.05 | 14% |
| 2.06 | 7% |
| 2.07 | 3% |
| 2.08 | 1% |
| 2.09 | <1% |
| 2.10 | <1% |
| 2.11 | <1% |
| 2.12 | <1% |
| 3.01 | <1% |
| 3.02 | <1% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 1.09 | 2% | 179 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.10 | 3% | 319 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.11 | 7% | 657 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.12 | 12% | 1171 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.01 | 16% | 1639 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.02 | 17% | 1697 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.03 | 15% | 1503 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.04 | 11% | 1108 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.05 | 7% | 699 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.06 | 4% | 383 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Derrick Henry was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- James Cook RB · BUF 11%
- De'Von Achane RB · MIA 10%
- Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 10%
- CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 7%
Usually taken just after
- James Cook RB · BUF 14%
- Saquon Barkley RB · PHI 8%
- Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 8%
- De'Von Achane RB · MIA 8%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Derrick Henry was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.