KC · Bye 5
Kenneth Walker III
LMD RB3 for Week 4 · 19.1 projected Full PPR points · RB3 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 19.1 points this week, RB3. Top 3: 19% · Top 12: 56% · Top 24: 82% of simulated weeks. Down 1 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB3
5th by projected points
Rest of season
RB3
4th by projected points
Projected
19.1
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
56%
Top 3: 19% · Top 24: 82% at RB
Movement
↓ 1
RB2 in Week 3, RB3 now
Should you start Kenneth Walker III in Week 4?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Kenneth Walker III RB3 for Week 4, inside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 82% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-0.57 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.84 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.34 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.60 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Kenneth Walker III Proves Chiefs Roster Is Built To Win Super Bowl
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Chiefs’ Travis Kelce Sends Patrick Mahomes a Clear Kenneth Walker Message After 3-0 Start
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Kenneth Walker III has 2 TDs as Chiefs beat Dolphins 24-10 after De’Von Achane exits with injury
westernkansasnews.com ·
-
Kenneth Walker III has changed the Chiefs’ math, and Mahomes is suddenly making defenses pay
columbiamissourian.com ·
-
Chiefs' Kenneth Walker III gets bad news from coach Andy Reid
Sporting News ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Kenneth Walker III by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Kenneth Walker III has averaged +11.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DEN | 11.2 | 34.1 | +22.9 |
| Wk 2 | vs IND | 13.9 | 23.8 | +9.9 |
| Wk 3 | @ MIA | 19.9 | 21.3 | +1.4 |
| Wk 4 | @ LV | 19.1 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB11. For the rest of the season LMD has him 8 spots higher, at RB3.
Preseason market: RB11 · ADP 21.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB3 +8
LMD has him 8 spots higher than his RB11 draft price.
Week 4
RB3 +8
LMD has him 8 spots higher than his RB11 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB11 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 261.8 points this season, RB3. Top 3: 38% · Top 12: 96% · Top 24: 100% of simulated seasons. That is 19.3 a game over 14 remaining games. Up 1 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
19.3 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 38% · Top 12: 96% · Top 24: 100%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Kenneth Walker III #59 in 1QB and #67 in Superflex, RB21 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#59
RB21 · tier 16 · of 297
Superflex
#67
RB21 · tier 13 · of 303
- Last season 176.4 pts 10.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 87% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 16.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 10% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
2.09
pick 21.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
2.09
half of simulations take him by pick 21
Draft range
2.05 - 3.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 2.09 in 58% of simulations
Pick 21 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 4, the same seat picks again at 3.04, where he is available in 5% of simulations.
Slot 4's remaining turns: 2.09 58% · 3.04 5% · 4.09 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 2.07 and 2.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 2.07 | 81% |
| 2.08 | 71% |
| 2.09 | 58% |
| 2.10 | 46% |
| 2.11 | 35% |
| 2.12 | 25% |
| 3.01 | 17% |
| 3.02 | 12% |
| 3.03 | 7% |
| 3.04 | 5% |
| 3.05 | 3% |
| 3.06 | 2% |
| 3.07 | 2% |
| 3.08 | <1% |
| 3.09 | <1% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.05 | 4% | 420 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.06 | 7% | 714 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.07 | 10% | 982 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.08 | 13% | 1288 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.09 | 12% | 1207 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10 | 11% | 1078 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.11 | 10% | 971 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12 | 8% | 800 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01 | 6% | 581 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 4% | 403 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Kenneth Walker III was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 10%
- Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 9%
- Chase Brown RB · CIN 7%
- Saquon Barkley RB · PHI 5%
Usually taken just after
- Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 11%
- Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 6%
- Chase Brown RB · CIN 6%
- Jeremiyah Love RB · ARI 5%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Kenneth Walker III was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.