PHI · Bye 10
Saquon Barkley
LMD RB19 for Week 4 · 12.9 projected Full PPR points · RB19 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 12.9 points this week, RB19. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 31% · Top 24: 56% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 4 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB19
67th by projected points
Rest of season
RB19
43rd by projected points
Projected
12.9
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
31%
Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 56% at RB
Movement
↓ 4
RB15 in Week 3, RB19 now
Should you start Saquon Barkley in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Saquon Barkley RB19 for Week 4, inside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 56% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+0.75 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-1.12 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.32 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+0.81 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Eagles vs. Bears prediction, props: Saquon Barkley will answer the call on ‘Monday Night Football’
nypost.com ·
-
Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Saquon Barkley And DeVonta Smith Cleared, But Eagles Lose Key Weapon Before Bears Game
Yahoo Sports ·
-
No injury designation for Saquon Barkley in Week 3
USA TODAY ·
-
WR DeVonta Smith, RB Saquon Barkley have no injury designation for Monday night
NBC Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Saquon Barkley by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Saquon Barkley has averaged -7.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs WAS | 14.8 | 9.0 | -5.8 |
| Wk 2 | @ TEN | 13.8 | 3.0 | -10.8 |
| Wk 3 | @ CHI | 13.6 | 9.0 | -4.6 |
| Wk 4 | vs LAR | 12.9 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB9. For the rest of the season LMD has him 10 spots lower, at RB19.
Preseason market: RB9 · ADP 18.3
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB19 −10
LMD has him 10 spots lower than his RB9 draft price.
Week 4
RB19 −10
LMD has him 10 spots lower than his RB9 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB9 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 177.4 points this season, RB19. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 23% · Top 24: 88% of simulated seasons. That is 13.0 a game over 14 remaining games. Listed questionable. Up 1 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
13.0 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 23% · Top 24: 88%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Saquon Barkley #43 in 1QB and #54 in Superflex, RB16 at his position. Age 29.
1QB
#43
RB16 · tier 13 · of 297
Superflex
#54
RB16 · tier 11 · of 303
- Last season 213.8 pts 13.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 22.0 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 13% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
2.03
pick 14.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
2.03
half of simulations take him by pick 15
Draft range
1.07 - 2.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 2.03 in 56% of simulations
Pick 15 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 3.10, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 2.03 56% · 3.10 <1% · 4.03 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 1.12 and 2.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 2.01 | 70% |
| 2.02 | 63% |
| 2.03 | 56% |
| 2.04 | 48% |
| 2.05 | 39% |
| 2.06 | 31% |
| 2.07 | 23% |
| 2.08 | 17% |
| 2.09 | 12% |
| 2.10 | 8% |
| 2.11 | 6% |
| 2.12 | 4% |
| 3.01 | 2% |
| 3.02 | 2% |
| 3.03 | 1% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 1.07 | 2% | 195 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.08 | 2% | 221 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.09 | 2% | 240 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.10 | 3% | 345 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.11 | 5% | 517 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.12 | 6% | 636 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.01 | 7% | 679 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.02 | 7% | 715 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.03 | 8% | 782 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.04 | 9% | 876 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.05 | 8% | 812 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.06 | 8% | 784 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.07 | 6% | 613 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.08 | 5% | 498 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.09 | 4% | 365 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Saquon Barkley was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- James Cook RB · BUF 9%
- Derrick Henry RB · BAL 8%
- Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 7%
- De'Von Achane RB · MIA 6%
Usually taken just after
- Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 8%
- James Cook RB · BUF 7%
- Derrick Henry RB · BAL 7%
- Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 5%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Saquon Barkley was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.