LAR · Bye 11
Kyren Williams
LMD RB16 for Week 4 · 13.8 projected Full PPR points · RB12 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 13.8 points this week, RB16. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 35% · Top 24: 63% of simulated weeks. Up 1 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB16
58th by projected points
Rest of season
RB12
29th by projected points
Projected
13.8
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
35%
Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 63% at RB
Movement
↑ 1
RB17 in Week 3, RB16 now
Should you start Kyren Williams in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Kyren Williams RB16 for Week 4, inside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 63% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.09 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.50 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.18 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-0.88 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Kyren Williams is producing like a top RB despite defenses stacking the box
bundle.app ·
-
Why Kyren Williams' versatility can at times be a conundrum for the Rams
The New York Times ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Kyren Williams by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Kyren Williams has averaged +7.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs SF | 10.2 | 15.5 | +5.3 |
| Wk 2 | vs NYG | 9.0 | 15.7 | +6.7 |
| Wk 3 | @ DEN | 12.7 | 21.8 | +9.1 |
| Wk 4 | @ PHI | 13.8 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB16. For the rest of the season LMD has him 4 spots higher, at RB12.
Preseason market: RB16 · ADP 31.8
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB12 +4
LMD has him 4 spots higher than his RB16 draft price.
Week 4
RB16 Even
Level with his RB16 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB16 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 197.2 points this season, RB12. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 47% · Top 24: 96% of simulated seasons. That is 13.8 a game over 14 remaining games. Up 2 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
13.8 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 47% · Top 24: 96%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Kyren Williams #16 in 1QB and #23 in Superflex, RB9 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#16
RB9 · tier 8 · of 297
Superflex
#23
RB9 · tier 7 · of 303
- Last season 245.3 pts 14.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 20.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 9% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.11
pick 35.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.12
half of simulations take him by pick 36
Draft range
3.04 - 4.06
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.12 in 52% of simulations
Pick 36 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 4.01, where he is available in 44% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 3.12 52% · 4.01 44% · 5.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.08 and 4.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.10 | 67% |
| 3.11 | 60% |
| 3.12 | 52% |
| 4.01 | 44% |
| 4.02 | 36% |
| 4.03 | 28% |
| 4.04 | 22% |
| 4.05 | 16% |
| 4.06 | 11% |
| 4.07 | 7% |
| 4.08 | 4% |
| 4.09 | 2% |
| 4.10 | 1% |
| 4.11 | <1% |
| 4.12 | <1% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.04 | 2% | 227 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 3% | 289 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 3% | 329 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 4% | 398 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 5% | 488 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 6% | 596 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 7% | 696 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 8% | 783 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 8% | 809 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 8% | 810 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 8% | 773 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 7% | 658 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 6% | 597 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 5% | 510 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 4% | 388 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Kyren Williams was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 7%
- DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 4%
- Drake Maye QB · NE 4%
- Chris Olave WR · NO 4%
Usually taken just after
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 5%
- Drake Maye QB · NE 4%
- Javonte Williams RB · DAL 4%
- Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Kyren Williams was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.