12-Team Half PPR draft strategy
Drafting from pick 4 in a 12-Team Half PPR league
You are on the clock at 1.04, and again at 2.09. Everything below is counted over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts: who is actually taken at this pick, who is already gone, and who is still on the board when it comes back around.
Your picks: 1.04 · 2.09 · 3.04 · 4.09 · 5.04 · 6.09 · 7.04 · 8.09 · 9.04 · 10.09 · 11.04 · 12.09 · 13.04 · 14.09 · 15.04
Your first pick
Who is taken at 1.04
- Bijan Robinson is the most common selection at 1.04, taken there in 27% of simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
- 50% of the time the pick at 1.04 is a WR.
- At least 8 players who are usually on the board at 1.04 are almost never still there at 2.09.
- Jeremiyah Love is the highest-priced player who is genuinely a coin flip at 2.09: still available in 26% of drafts.
| Player | Taken here | Sim. avg |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 27% | 1.04 |
| Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 25% | 1.05 |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 19% | 1.04 |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 10% | 1.02 |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 3% | 1.07 |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 3% | 1.07 |
| Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 3% | 1.07 |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 2% | 1.07 |
The turn
Gone by 2.09
Usually on the board at 1.04 and almost never still there when the pick comes back around. This is the decision draft slot 4 actually makes.
| Player | At 2.09 | Sim. avg |
|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 0% | 1.04 |
| Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 0% | 1.05 |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 0% | 1.07 |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 0% | 1.07 |
| Derrick HenryRB · BAL | <1% | 1.07 |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | <1% | 1.07 |
| James CookRB · BUF | <1% | 1.09 |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | <1% | 1.10 |
Your next turn
Still live at 2.09
A genuine coin flip at your next turn -- the players worth planning around rather than counting on.
| Player | At 2.09 | Sim. avg |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremiyah LoveRB · ARI | 26% | 2.04 |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | 22% | 2.06 |
| Drake LondonWR · ATL | 43% | 2.07 |
| Ashton JeantyRB · LV | 71% | 2.10 |
| Josh JacobsRB · GB | 65% | 2.11 |
| Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | 79% | 2.11 |
| Nico CollinsWR · HOU | 77% | 2.11 |
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 82% | 2.12 |
Position mix
How this slot usually opens
| Pick | Round | Usually a |
|---|---|---|
| 1.04 | Round 1 | WR50%RB50%QB<1% |
| 2.09 | Round 2 | RB61%WR36%QB2%TE<1% |
| 3.04 | Round 3 | RB45%WR40%QB12%TE2% |
| 4.09 | Round 4 | WR51%RB23%QB13%TE12% |
| 5.04 | Round 5 | WR43%RB32%QB16%TE10% |
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page is a count over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. None of it is advice: a share is how often something happened, and a probability carries the number of drafts behind it.
A simulated draft is not a market. These pages describe how our simulated managers draft, which is a statement about our board; where a player is drafted in real leagues is a different number, published separately.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 8, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
Next
Draft it yourself
Opens a 12-team Half PPR 1QB room with seat 4 already yours.