MIN · Bye 6
Aaron Jones
LMD RB10 for Week 4 · 14.7 projected Full PPR points · RB14 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 14.7 points this week, RB10. Top 3: 11% · Top 12: 36% · Top 24: 62% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Up 18 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB10
45th by projected points
Rest of season
RB14
31st by projected points
Projected
14.7
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
36%
Top 3: 11% · Top 24: 62% at RB
Movement
↑ 18
RB28 in Week 3, RB10 now
Should you start Aaron Jones in Week 4?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Aaron Jones RB10 for Week 4, inside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 62% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
RB10 vs RB30 +20
LMD has him RB10. The fantasy draft market has him RB30, 20 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-0.55 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.12 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.82 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+1.61 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Aaron Jones limited at practice Wednesday
USA TODAY ·
-
Fantasy football Week 4 RB preview: Aaron Jones and Jaylen Warren surging at just the right time
CBS Sports ·
-
It's safe to say that the Vikings' backfield situation behind Aaron Jones Sr. has been an issue since Jordan Mason landed on IR.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Find out whether RB Aaron Jones Sr. was a winner or a loser in the Vikings' snap count in Sunday's win over the Buccaneers.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Vikings’ Aaron Jones Sr. Cleared to Play Against Buccaneers
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Aaron Jones by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Aaron Jones has averaged +2.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs GB | 7.4 | 10.0 | +2.6 |
| Wk 2 | @ CHI | 9.7 | 10.5 | +0.8 |
| Wk 3 | @ TB | 10.3 | 14.2 | +3.9 |
| Wk 4 | vs MIA | 14.7 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB36. For the rest of the season LMD has him 22 spots higher, at RB14.
Preseason market: RB36 · ADP 101.6
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB14 +22
LMD has him 22 spots higher than his RB36 draft price.
Week 4
RB10 +26
LMD has him 26 spots higher than his RB36 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB36 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 192.0 points this season, RB14. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 41% · Top 24: 95% of simulated seasons. That is 14.7 a game over 14 remaining games. Listed questionable. Up 3 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
14.7 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 41% · Top 24: 95%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Aaron Jones #221 in 1QB and #224 in Superflex, RB59 at his position. Age 31.
1QB
#221
RB59 · tier 49 · of 297
Superflex
#224
RB59 · tier 41 · of 303
- Last season 104.7 pts 8.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 78% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 16.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 13% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
9.11
pick 107.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
9.10
half of simulations take him by pick 106
Draft range
8.04 - 11.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 9.10 in 51% of simulations
Pick 106 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 10.03, where he is available in 39% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 9.10 51% · 10.03 39% · 11.10 8% · 12.03 4% · 13.10 <1% · 14.03 <1% · 15.10 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 8.11 and 10.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 9.08 | 56% |
| 9.09 | 54% |
| 9.10 | 51% |
| 9.11 | 49% |
| 9.12 | 46% |
| 10.01 | 44% |
| 10.02 | 42% |
| 10.03 | 39% |
| 10.04 | 37% |
| 10.05 | 35% |
| 10.06 | 33% |
| 10.07 | 31% |
| 10.08 | 28% |
| 10.09 | 27% |
| 10.10 | 25% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.04-8.05 | 4% | 359 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 4% | 414 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 4% | 427 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 4% | 443 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 5% | 457 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 5% | 456 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 5% | 488 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 483 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 5% | 507 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 5% | 466 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 5% | 476 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 5% | 471 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 4% | 419 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 4% | 439 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 4% | 369 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 3% | 346 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 3% | 325 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 3% | 289 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 3% | 296 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 3% | 251 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Aaron Jones was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2%
- Brock Purdy QB · SF 2%
- Brian Robinson RB · ATL 2%
- Alec Pierce WR · IND 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brian Robinson RB · ATL 2%
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2%
- Jonathon Brooks RB · CAR 2%
- Alec Pierce WR · IND 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Aaron Jones was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.