KC · Bye 5 · Rookie
Emmett Johnson
LMD RB47 for Week 4 · 4.8 projected Full PPR points · RB56 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 4.8 points this week, RB47. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 11% of simulated weeks. Up 1 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB47
207th by projected points
Rest of season
RB56
199th by projected points
Projected
4.8
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
2%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 11% at RB
Movement
↑ 1
RB48 in Week 3, RB47 now
Should you start Emmett Johnson in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Emmett Johnson RB47 for Week 4, outside the RB24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside RB24 in 11% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
RB47 vs RB53 +6
LMD has him RB47. The fantasy draft market has him RB53, 6 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.06 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.00 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.06 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.10 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
ADP UPDATE
Emmett Johnson's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 157.0 to 165.4 over the last 8 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Emmett Johnson has averaged +0.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DEN | 2.6 | 8.8 | +6.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs IND | 4.3 | 5.5 | +1.2 |
| Wk 3 | @ MIA | 6.3 | 1.7 | -4.6 |
| Wk 4 | @ LV | 4.8 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 66.6 points this season, RB56. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 4.8 a game over 14 remaining games. Up 2 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
4.8 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Emmett Johnson #207 in 1QB and #210 in Superflex, RB53 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 22.
1QB
#207
RB53 · tier 45 · of 297 · rookie 29 of 52
Superflex
#210
RB53 · tier 38 · of 303 · rookie 31 of 52
- Draft capital Round 5, pick 161 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty RB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.11
pick 142.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.06
half of simulations take him by pick 138
Draft range
11.04 - 15.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 8,871 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.06 in 56% of simulations
Pick 138 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 13.07, where he is available in 36% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 12.06 56% · 13.07 36% · 14.06 31% · 15.07 18%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.09 and 14.01.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.04 | 62% |
| 12.05 | 59% |
| 12.06 | 56% |
| 12.07 | 53% |
| 12.08 | 51% |
| 12.09 | 48% |
| 12.10 | 45% |
| 12.11 | 42% |
| 12.12 | 40% |
| 13.01 | 37% |
| 13.02 | 37% |
| 13.03 | 37% |
| 13.04 | 37% |
| 13.05 | 36% |
| 13.06 | 36% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 11.04-11.06 | 7% | 733 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.09 | 7% | 705 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.12 | 8% | 764 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.03 | 8% | 795 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.06 | 9% | 866 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.09 | 8% | 831 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.12 | 8% | 761 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.03 | <1% | 60 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.06 | 1% | 105 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.09 | <1% | 89 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.12 | <1% | 95 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.03 | 2% | 197 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.06 | 2% | 196 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.09 | 2% | 225 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.12 | 2% | 242 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.03 | 4% | 388 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 2% | 235 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 8871 simulations in which Emmett Johnson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Woody Marks RB · HOU 2%
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 2%
- Matthew Golden WR · GB 2%
- Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 2%
Usually taken just after
- Xavier Worthy WR · KC 2%
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 2%
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 2%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Emmett Johnson was selected in 8871 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.