TEN · Bye 9
Tyjae Spears
LMD RB52 for Week 4 · 4.4 projected Full PPR points · RB51 rest of season
Questionable · projection includes a 71% chance of playing
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 4.4 points this week, RB52. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 13% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable (Ankle). The projection and the Top 3, 12 and 24 odds include a 71% chance he plays; the weeks he sits count as zero. Down 13 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB52
220th by projected points
Rest of season
RB51
158th by projected points
Projected
4.4
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
3%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 13% at RB
Movement
↓ 13
RB39 in Week 3, RB52 now
Should you start Tyjae Spears in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Tyjae Spears RB52 for Week 4, outside the RB24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside RB24 in 13% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
RB52 vs RB46 -6
LMD has him RB52. The fantasy draft market has him RB46, 6 places higher.
Our projection is lower than the outside forecast.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.29 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.57 pts
- AvailabilityQuestionable
- Negative-1.85 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.29 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.00 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Tyjae Spears questionable for Week 4
USA TODAY ·
-
Titans RB Tony Pollard has no game status, but RB Tyjae Spears is questionable
NBC Sports ·
-
Titans' Tyjae Spears, Kevin Winston Jr. questionable for Week 4
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears return to Titans' practice
NBC Sports ·
-
No practice for Tyjae Spears
USA TODAY ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Tyjae Spears by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Tyjae Spears has averaged -1.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NYJ | 6.6 | 4.4 | -2.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs PHI | 6.0 | 9.0 | +3.0 |
| Wk 3 | @ NYG | 5.4 | 0.5 | -4.9 |
| Wk 4 | @ BAL | 4.4 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at RB42. For the rest of the season LMD has him 9 spots lower, at RB51.
Preseason market: RB42 · ADP 129.8
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
RB51 −9
LMD has him 9 spots lower than his RB42 draft price.
Week 4
RB52 −10
LMD has him 10 spots lower than his RB42 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
RB42 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 80.9 points this season, RB51. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 6.3 a game over 13.707 remaining games. Listed questionable (Ankle). The projection and the Top 3, 12 and 24 odds include a 71% chance he plays; the weeks he sits count as zero. Up 3 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
6.3 / game
Over 13.707 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Tyjae Spears #150 in 1QB and #153 in Superflex, RB43 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#150
RB43 · tier 34 · of 297
Superflex
#153
RB43 · tier 28 · of 303
- Last season 89.2 pts 6.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 79% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 9.7 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 12% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.03
pick 158.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.07
half of simulations take him by pick 163
Draft range
12.07 - 15.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 6,080 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.07 in 70% of simulations
Pick 163 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 15.06, where he is available in 53% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 14.07 70% · 15.06 53%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.10 and 15.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.05 | 72% |
| 14.06 | 71% |
| 14.07 | 70% |
| 14.08 | 69% |
| 14.09 | 68% |
| 14.10 | 67% |
| 14.11 | 66% |
| 14.12 | 64% |
| 15.01 | 63% |
| 15.02 | 61% |
| 15.03 | 59% |
| 15.04 | 57% |
| 15.05 | 55% |
| 15.06 | 53% |
| 15.07 | 51% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.07-12.08 | 5% | 521 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.10 | 5% | 541 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-12.12 | 5% | 547 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.02 | <1% | 38 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.04 | <1% | 83 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.06 | <1% | 88 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.08 | <1% | 67 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.10 | <1% | 61 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-13.12 | <1% | 85 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.02 | 2% | 154 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.04 | 2% | 158 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.06 | 2% | 162 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.08 | 2% | 198 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.10 | 2% | 220 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-14.12 | 3% | 259 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 4% | 393 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03-15.04 | 4% | 412 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.06 | 4% | 418 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07-15.08 | 4% | 422 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 213 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 6080 simulations in which Tyjae Spears was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Andy Borregales K · NE 2%
- Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 2%
- Rachaad White RB · WAS 2%
- Alvin Kamara RB · NO 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 3%
- Alvin Kamara RB · NO 2%
- Chris Boswell K · PIT 2%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Tyjae Spears was selected in 6080 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.