NYJ · Bye 13
Braelon Allen
LMD RB31 for Week 4 · 8.6 projected Full PPR points · RB36 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.6 points this week, RB31. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 12% · Top 24: 34% of simulated weeks. Up 20 since Week 3.
Week 4
RB31
123rd by projected points
Rest of season
RB36
118th by projected points
Projected
8.6
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
12%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 34% at RB
Movement
↑ 20
RB51 in Week 3, RB31 now
Should you start Braelon Allen in Week 4?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Braelon Allen RB31 for Week 4, just outside the RB24 starter line. He finishes inside RB24 in 34% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
RB31 vs RB48 +17
LMD has him RB31. The fantasy draft market has him RB48, 17 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.05 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.88 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.96 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+1.32 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Fantasy Football FAAB Report: Kenyon Sadiq, Braelon Allen, and 6 More Week 4 Waiver Wire Adds
Yahoo Sports ·
-
With Breece Hall dealing with thigh injury, Jets may have to turn to Braelon Allen or Isaiah Davis at running back
newsday.com ·
-
Fantasy Football Waiver Wire, Week 4: Braelon Allen, Kenyon Sadiq among top pickups to target
Yahoo Sports ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Braelon Allen's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 146.9 to 159.8 over the last 7 days.
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Braelon Allen by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Braelon Allen has averaged +1.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ TEN | 3.2 | 4.0 | +0.8 |
| Wk 2 | vs GB | 4.6 | 8.5 | +3.9 |
| Wk 3 | @ DET | 4.7 | 4.7 | 0.0 |
| Wk 4 | @ CHI | 8.6 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 108.4 points this season, RB36. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 4% of simulated seasons. That is 8.7 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 2 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
8.7 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 4%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Braelon Allen #301 in Superflex. Age 22.
1QB
--
Not ranked on this board
Superflex
#301
RB82 · tier 70 · of 303
- Last season 14.3 pts 3.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 52% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 3% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.03
pick 171.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.04
half of simulations take him by pick 172
Draft range
14.06 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 3,485 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.04 in 84% of simulations
Pick 172 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.12 and 15.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.02 | 89% |
| 15.03 | 87% |
| 15.04 | 84% |
| 15.05 | 82% |
| 15.06 | 80% |
| 15.07 | 78% |
| 15.08 | 76% |
| 15.09 | 74% |
| 15.10 | 72% |
| 15.11 | 69% |
| 15.12 | 67% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.06 | <1% | 78 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | <1% | 68 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | <1% | 88 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | <1% | 93 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | <1% | 83 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | 1% | 108 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | 1% | 126 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 2% | 209 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 2% | 209 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 2% | 212 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 218 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 224 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 204 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 226 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 192 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 224 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 203 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 216 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 3485 simulations in which Braelon Allen was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 4%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 3%
- Andy Borregales K · NE 3%
- Los Angeles Chargers DST · LAC 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 3%
- Andy Borregales K · NE 3%
- Chris Boswell K · PIT 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Braelon Allen was selected in 3485 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.