LMD Fantasy Support LMD
RB

LV · Bye 13 · Rookie

Mike Washington Jr.

LMD RB57 for Week 4 · 3.9 projected Full PPR points · RB64 rest of season

Regular season

Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 3.9 points this week, RB57. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 8% of simulated weeks. Up 4 since Week 3.

Week 4

RB57

239th by projected points

Rest of season

RB64

232nd by projected points

Projected

3.9

week 4, Full PPR

Top 12

1%

Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 8% at RB

Movement

↑ 4

RB61 in Week 3, RB57 now

Should you start Mike Washington Jr. in Week 4?

Bench

Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Mike Washington Jr. RB57 for Week 4, outside the RB24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside RB24 in 8% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

LMD vs the draft market

RB57 vs RB51 -6

LMD has him RB57. The fantasy draft market has him RB51, 6 places higher.

Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline.

Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All RB rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Mike Washington Jr. by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 3 completed games Mike Washington Jr. has averaged +1.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Mike Washington Jr., Full PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 vs MIA 4.4 4.1 -0.3
Wk 2 @ LAC 3.1 0.7 -2.4
Wk 3 @ NO 3.3 11.4 +8.1
Wk 4 vs KC 3.9 Pending —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Draft Return

How he compares with his draft price

The draft market had him at RB49. For the rest of the season LMD has him 15 spots lower, at RB64.

Preseason market: RB49 · ADP 151.4

Season to date

Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.

Rest of season

RB64 −15

LMD has him 15 spots lower than his RB49 draft price.

Week 4

RB57 −8

LMD has him 8 spots lower than his RB49 draft price.

Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026

Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.

RB49 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.

ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 57.3 points this season, RB64. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 4.0 a game over 14 remaining games. Up 10 since the Oct. 1 board.

Per game

4.0 / game

Over 14 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at RB

Market input

thin

Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Mike Washington Jr. #158 in 1QB and #163 in Superflex, RB46 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 23.

1QB

#158

RB46 · tier 36 · of 297 · rookie 16 of 52

Superflex

#163

RB46 · tier 30 · of 303 · rookie 16 of 52

  • Draft capital Round 4, pick 122 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty RB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

15.06

pick 173.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

15.06

half of simulations take him by pick 174

Draft range

15.01 - 15.11

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 2,760 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams
Scoring Full PPR also published: Half PPR, Standard
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 15.06 in 88% of simulations

Pick 174 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

The middle half of simulations take him between 15.03 and 15.09.

Mike Washington Jr. still on the board
PickAvailable
15.04 92%
15.05 90%
15.06 88%
15.07 86%
15.08 84%
15.09 81%
15.10 79%
15.11 77%
15.12 74%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Mike Washington Jr. was selected at each pick, 15.01 through 15.11. He goes earlier than this window in 3%, later in 2%, undrafted in 72%.
Draft position distribution for Mike Washington Jr.
PickShare of simulationsCount
15.012%151 of 10000 simulations
15.022%173 of 10000 simulations
15.032%188 of 10000 simulations
15.042%194 of 10000 simulations
15.052%213 of 10000 simulations
15.062%207 of 10000 simulations
15.072%241 of 10000 simulations
15.082%228 of 10000 simulations
15.092%240 of 10000 simulations
15.102%216 of 10000 simulations
15.112%237 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 2760 simulations in which Mike Washington Jr. was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Mike Washington Jr. was selected in 2760 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
October 1, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Full PPR 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.